MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., OCT. 28, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade!
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December coffee. Sell 134.95 stop. Protective stop 137.75. Potential projection 130.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, coffee rallied into resistance and has been selling off.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top last week - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
3. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. On the daily chart, coffee closed under the 20 day MA today.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: Stops were reached with a profit on Friday. I had moved the stop right under the 400 support. Corn formed a key reversal top on Friday. It has been selling off since. Technically it has not done anything negative and appears to be testing the breakout from the huge base it has built between 300 and 350. Today it stopped at the 20 day MA. When it started to sell off in mid October but stopped, it held at 368 ½. Today's low 369 ¼. If it goes through that 368 ½, the probability of trying for 350 increases. Waiting to buy. Closed 370 ¾, down 7 ¼.
Position: Long 390 ¼ (10.20). Exit 398 ¾ (10.23). Profit $400.
DEC MINI WHEAT: Stops were reached on Friday with a profit as I had moved them up very close. It came very close to my projection at 575 but I chose to raise the stop instead. It has been selling off since. It is very close to the 500 support. Today's low 502 ¾. Its 20 day MA intersects at 495 approximately. My point being, if this market has bottomed, we could be getting close to a buy point. Watching closely. Closed 503 ¼, down 23 ¾.
Position: Long 532 ½ (10.20). Exit 548 ¾ (10.23). Profit $162.50.
JAN MINI BEANS: They triggered a buy on Friday. I was stopped out on Monday when they negated the buy signal. They have support at 975 but did go through it today (low 972). Their 20 day MA intersects at 966 approximately. The really good support is down at 950. It is too early to tell if the entire rally from the 885 ½ low up to 1029 ¼ on Friday was a first wave up or just the set up for another major wave down. Too early to tell. If this is a correction to a first wave up, this sell-off should set up a buying opportunity. Closed 976 ½, down 12 ¼.
Position: Long 1016 (10.23). Exit 992 ½ (10.26). Loss $235.
DEC MEAL: It had support at 290 that is went through today. The next support area is around 280. It also closed under the 20 day MA. Just watching. Closed 287.60, down 7.20.
DEC BEAN OIL: It has sold off the least of the grain complex. Since the low on Sept. 29 was a test of the contract low made in July, this recent major rally that topped last week appears to be the start of a second wave up. This sell-off should be an opportunity to go long again. It has support at 37.00 and again at 36.00. Just watching for now. Closed 37.48, down 15.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: They triggered a buy today and rallied to 55.67. Keep stops at 52.72. Closed 55.42, up 197.
Position: Long 54.55 (10.26).
Projection: 59.00.
DEC CATTLE: They formed an inside day today at the 87.50 resistance. This price level caused problems in mid Sept. and appears to be doing so again. Just watching. Closed 87.10, down 5.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It sold off to the 66.00 support today. Long term it rallied to some hefty resistance from 68.00 up to 70.00. On the daily chart it has been pushing up against that 68.00 level for over two weeks. As you know, when a market cannot get over a certain resistance, it will back off and try from a lower level. That could be the case here. Just watching for now. Closed 67.05, down 36.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: An outside day yesterday triggered a buy today. Long term it is in resistance territory up to 120.00. It could rally from here but I am going to watch. It came too close to meeting current projections on the weekly chart. The only thing that could change that is a freeze and you can't trade off of that possibility. Waiting for a correction to buy. Closed 117.00 up 1.60.
DEC COFFEE: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details.
Closed 136.25, down 25.
DEC COCOA: This market is having trouble at 34.00. On the daily chart it hasn't been able to rally over that level. It formed an inside day today but there just isn't enough technically to warrant a trade. Closed 33.41, down 13.
MAR SUGAR: I lowered my stop and was stopped out yesterday with a profit. (*Please note that the short entry price was a typo in my last Update and has been corrected below). I was not happy with the stop out as it still looks as though it has more to the sell-off. I still liked the chart formation and recommended it again today and was filled. Keep stops at 23.75 on the new position. Closed 22.65, down 29.
Position: Short 23.94 (10.20). Exit 23.59 (10.26). Profit $414.40.
Position: Short 22.67 (10.26).
Projection: 20.00.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
