MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY., OCT. 23, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. The purpose of my Market Update is to help combat emotion and establish discipline by presenting a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy January mini beans. Buy 1013 1/4 stop. Protective stop 994. Potential projection 1075.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, beans have formed a key reversal bottom this month - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
2. On both the monthly and weekly charts, they are over the 1000 resistance. That is now support.
3. The weekly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
4. The weekly chart has a gap up at 1045. Markets tend to go back and fill gaps.
5. The daily chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy December hogs. Buy 55.15 stop. Protective stop 52.95. Potential projection 60.00.
Reasons for the Trades:
1. The monthly chart is triggering a preliminary buy signal this month.
2. The weekly chart has a key reversal bottom - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
3. On the weekly chart, a buy signal would push hogs over the 20 day MA and the 55.00 resistance. That would be positive.
4. On the daily chart, the recent sell-off tested and held the 52.50 support.
5. On the daily chart, a buy signal would push hogs over the 55.00 resistance.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long December corn from 368 1/2 up to 379.
Short March sugar from 24.43 down to 24.13.
GRAIN COMMENTS: The grains continue to rally even though they struggled early in the day. The reason is that corn, wheat & beans are trying to get over resistance. For corn it is 400. For beans it is 1000. For wheat it is 550. I raised the stop in the bean oil to a profit position and also moved up the wheat stop. Being long three grains at the same time requires a prudence considering how they can flop around. Here today, gone tomorrow tends to be their motto! Either way they all got over resistance today but they need to confirm it. I will review the long term charts below to see how they are progressing.
DEC CORN: It triggered a buy yesterday. It is working on getting over 400 which is very important. It filled one gap on the weekly at 398. There is another one up at 421 that corn, most likely, will try to fill. As pointed out for some time, corn is duplicating its previous action when it held at the 300 level in 2008 and 2007. In 2008 the initial rally off that level reached 428 1/4. It then sold off but eventually went to 450. In 2006 it initially reached 389 1/2 and backed off. After that it had the huge move up to 776. Where will it go this time? That is anybody's guess. Its 20 day MA intersects up at 452 currently. The key for corn right now is to hold 400 with follow through. Move stops from 368 1/2 up to 379. Closed 403 1/2, up 5 1/4.
Position: Long 390 1/4 (10.20).
Projection: 425.
DEC MINI WHEAT: It triggered a buy yesterday. I moved the stop up today to 532 1/2. It is clearly over the 500 problem area. That is now support and there isn't much to stop it until 600 on both the monthly and weekly charts. Closed 551 3/4, up 9 1/4.
Position: Long 532 1/2 (10.20).
Projection: 575
JAN MINI BEANS: Switching to Jan. In my last Update, the 1000 level was the problem area for both the Nov. and Jan. contracts. They are making an effort to get over that. This is the second day that they closed over that area. In the process of doing so, beans have consolidated and that should give them support for further follow through. On the weekly chart they have a gap up at 1045. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 1007, down 2 3/4.
DEC MEAL: It came close to triggering a buy today from yesterday's outside day on the daily chart but didn't. It may tomorrow as today was an inside day. If it does, it should produce a move to at least 320. It has long term support at 300 that it is attempting to hold. The monthly chart has a key reversal bottom now. The weekly triggered a buy last week. Closed 300.80, up 2.10.
DEC BEAN OIL: I moved the stop up today to 37.85 and it was reached. Of course, it was the low of the day. Either way, it locked in a profit which is the main concern. Bean oil has closed over 38.00 which is support. A follow through correction should be an opportunity to buy again. Closed 38.30, down 26.
Position: Long 37.15 (10.16). Exit 37.85 (10.21). Profit $420.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: I tried to buy them today. They barely moved so I will try again tomorrow. Closed 53.72, up 5.
DEC CATTLE: Last time I pointed out that they had taken out the high of the previous rally. They continued to follow through with that endeavor and are now close to resistance at 87.50. Today was an outside day on the daily chart. The monthly chart is forming a key reversal bottom and has managed to get over 85.00 resistance. They could be starting a major rally but they are too tough to position in. Just watching. Closed 87.37, up 30.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It triggered a buy yesterday on the daily chart from an inside day. It has continued to follow through today. I really like this market but its odd behavior the other day when it triggered a buy and collapsed the same day makes me question it in this area. Also the current wave up has met projections. That doesn't mean the market can't ignore that. It can but I am just watching for now. Closed 68.55, up 17.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: Last time I pointed out that the current wave up was close to meeting projections so I was not interested in the buy signal produced in OJ. The buy signal has not followed through. It was negated today when OJ sold off 4.05 points. There should be more sell-off. There is some support at 110.00 but if it follows the pattern of the last two major sell-offs (from the last two waves up), this current one is just starting. OJ's pattern is to have deep corrections. The last two sell-offs have averaged 25.00 points. If this one follows that pattern at all, OJ could reach 96.00. There is pretty decent support around 102.00 so that could be an area to watch to start. Closed 116.70, down 4.05.
DEC COFFEE: It continues to consolidate at the 140.00 support. I lean towards buying since the long term trend is up. The problem is that the current wave up on the daily chart has met projections and it reached resistance on the long term charts. Waiting for a sell off to go long. Closed 143.20, down 1.10.
DEC COCOA: Another new high today at 33.94. Long term the current major wave up on the weekly chart has met projections. On the monthly chart, it has not. Just watching. Closed 33.06, up 2.
MAR SUGAR: An inside day yesterday triggered a sell on the daily chart with follow through to 23.01. It is now under the 20 day MA. Follow through under 23.00 would be positive for continued follow through of what appears to be a third wave down. Move stops from 24.43 down to 24.13. Closed 23.08, down 96.
Position: Short 23.80 (10.20).
Projection: 20.00.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
