MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., OCT. 21, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December mini crude oil. Sell 78.26 stop. Protective stop 80.45. Potential projection 74.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts are in resistance.
2. On the monthly chart, oil rallied up to the 20 day MA and that stopped the rally.
3. On the weekly chart, the current wave up met projections.
4. On the daily chart, the current wave up met projections.
5. On the daily chart, crude oil formed a key reversal top today.
6. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: It was locked in an inside/outside day mode that went on for six days. Very unusual. Finally an inside day triggered a sell on Monday but then turned around and rallied to negate the sell and rallied up to 296.90. It took out the previous high (298.95) today when it rallied to 299.90. It then formed a key reversal top. Prior to this action, the daily chart was suggesting a market top and had started a downtrend. It looks to me like this rally was strictly to get any stops. The only thing to change that would be a close over 300.00 that holds. As usual, I just watch this market. Closed 293.20, down 3.45.
DEC MINI GOLD: The potential for the current wave up is 1080.00. It is acting worn out or else it is regrouping for the final swing up there. You don't know. It reached 1072.00 last week and has struggled since. It may have to sell off more first. You don't know as you are in new territory and do not have much as reference points. Closed 1058.60, up .50.
DEC MINI SILVER: It is in long term resistance (18.000) and struggling. After trying to get over that hurtle, it sold off last week and tried again today. That fizzled out. If gold keeps rallying, it should help the silver. It is having a tough time at 18.000 and the current wave up hasn't even begun to meet projections. While gold is close to its projection, silver's is up at 19.900 and it is trading around 17.540. It continues to appear as though silver has been dragged along by gold. Just watching. Closed 17.558, down .670.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
DEC MINI CRUDE OIL: Switching to December contract. It finally reached 80.000 today and then sold off down to 78.32. It has formed a key reversal top and an outside day. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 79.12, down 84.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I moved stops down to 111.280 yesterday from 112.630. It sold off to 109.83 today. It is trying to hold 110.00. Closed 110.30, up 1.
Position: Short 110.740 (10.15)
Projection: 108.000.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It finally took out the previous contract high by 3 ticks. It also triggered a buy today from yesterday's outside day. For all intent and purposes, the swiss has a double top - and a big one. If it starts to sell off, it could be a big correction. If it doesn't, it is probably headed for 100.00. The next couple of days should reveal a lot. Closed 98.76, up 1.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It rallied today and formed an inside day. It is getting close to long term support at 75.000. Other than that there is nothing new going on. Just watching. Closed 75.730, up .225.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: It took out a double top formed yesterday. The new high is 149.920. The 150.000 level is minor resistance. Whether it sells off from that or not remains to be seen. It did form a key reversal top today. Just watching. Closed 149.250, down 17.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a sell on Friday. I took profit this morning when it finally started to follow through. It made a low at 94.98. It appears to be testing the breakout from the 94.00 level in early October. That could be an opportunity to buy. Just watching. Closed 95.19, down 202.
Position: Short 96.30 (10.16). Exit 95.30 (10.20). Profit $1000.00.
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: I keep trying to short them. No such luck. They rallied again today and are over the 20 day MA. They are also up against the 118.240 resistance. There could be more to the rally. Watching closely to short. Closed 118.205, up .130.
DEC BONDS: They rallied up to their 20 day MA and stopped. They are also in resistance on the daily chart at approx. 121.000. I do not see anything to do yet. Closed 120.21, up 24.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
