MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, OCT. 16, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. The purpose of my Market Update is to help combat emotion and establish discipline by presenting a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves. The Market Update includes the basics that any trading plan should have: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. It also includes the reasons for the trades as a learning tool and a way to possibly improve your approach to the markets.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December canadian dollar. Sell 96.36 stop. Protective stop 98.01. Potential projection 94.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts reached resistance and have started to sell off.
2. On the daily chart, the CD is pushing into resistance formed in July 2008.
3. On the daily chart, the CD broke out of consolidation at 94.00 and has not tested that breakout. It is common for a market to do so.
4. The daily chart formed a key reversal top today - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
5. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December 10 Yr. Notes. Sell 117.190 stop. Protective stop 118.115. Potential projection 116.20.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, notes are forming a preliminary key reversal top.
2. On the monthly chart, notes violated the 20 day moving average today.
3. The monthly chart has a previous sell signal.
4. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top last week.
5. On the daily chart, notes violated their uptrend formed since the mid August low today.
6. On the daily chart, notes violated the 20 day MA yesterday. Today's rally was stopped by that average.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: This is ridiculous. It has had five back to back inside and outside days. I believe that is a record of any market that I can recall. Normally when a market does that, it creates one strong move. It still appears to be forming a top. Both long term charts have sell signals. Just watching. Closed 285.90, up 1.45.
DEC MINI GOLD: After a new high yesterday at 1072.00, it sold off today to 1047.40. The previous high in Dec. gold was in March 2008 at 1060.00. It is now back under that price and possibly will produce a further correction at this level. Just watching. Closed 1050.60, down 14.10.
DEC MINI SILVER: I tried to short silver yesterday but it rallied. It then sold off today with a low at 17.360. There is support at 17.000. Just watching. Closed 17.415, down .493.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
NOV MINI CRUDE OIL: In my last Update, I pointed out that the next hurtle for crude was getting over 75.000. It did so today when it rallied to 77.970. I still see 80.000 as the projection. Closed 77.580, up 240.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: It finally triggered a sell today. The fills were not good. It sold off to 110.190. Keep stops at a112.630 for now. Closed 110.390, down 139.
Position: Short 110.740 (10.15).
Projection: 108.000.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It is starting to suggest a near term top. Long term it is backing off from resistance. The weekly chart is forming a key reversal top. The daily chart is setting up a potential 1,2,3 top. The contract high is 99.20. It has been trying to test that high without success for the last two days. The high today was 98.88 before the rally fizzled out. Closed 98.49, up 5.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Another new low today on the daily chart at 75.405. Long term support remains at 75.000. I see nothing to do. Closed 75.665, down .065.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: A new high today at 149.640 by 20 ticks. Long term there is resistance at 150.000. Just watching. Closed 149.260, up .230.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 96.77, down 53.
DEC 10 YR. NOTES: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 117.245, down .125.
DEC BONDS: They triggered a sell yesterday. I covered them this morning when they reached some support and held. Closed 118.25, down .20.
Position: Short 119.21 (10.14). Exit 118.31 (10.15). Profit $687.50.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
