MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, OCT. 16, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. The purpose of my Market Update is to help combat emotion and establish discipline by presenting a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves.
The Market Update includes the basics that any trading plan should have: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. It also includes the reasons for the trades as a learning tool and a way to possibly improve your approach to the markets.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy December bean oil. Buy 37.15 stop. Protective stop 35.40. Potential projection 41.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, bean oil is back over the 35.00 major support.
2. The monthly chart has a key reversal bottom.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom to the last sell-off three weeks ago.
4. The weekly chart triggered a buy signal last week.
5. On the weekly chart, bean oil rallied over the 20 day MA this week.
6. On the weekly chart, bean oil has been in an uptrend. Each sell-off has held at the uptrend line formed since the 2008 low.
7. On the daily chart, bean oil appears to be starting a second wave up. The sell-off that bottomed in September did not take out the low established in July. Technically that confirms a bottom. (Both beans and meal did take out their lows established in July).
8. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS: The grains have started to sell off. Unless something dramatic happens, this sell-off should eventually produce a buying opportunity. Both technicals and current harvesting problems due to frost or too much moisture are supportive of that. But that can change. If the situation changes, the rallies we have seen, could be just setups for another major wave down (except for corn and bean oil).
DEC CORN: I raised the stop in last nite's Trade Alert and was stopped out at 374 with a profit. It sold off to 368 ½. If this sell-off is to test the breakout from the consolidation if formed, it should be an opportunity to buy again possibly around 350. Watching closely to buy. Closed 373, down 10.
Position: 366 ¼ (10.9). Exit 374 (10.15). Profit $387.50.
DEC WHEAT: If wheat can sell-off to 477 support, that may be a buying opportunity. Again, the long term charts will have a lot to do with that possibility and what they suggest at that time. Today's low 496 ¼. Just watching. Closed 505, down 8.
NOV BEANS: An inside day yesterday, triggered a sell today. As mentioned in my previous Update, a sell-off could be an opportunity to go long since the long term charts have turned more positive. Today's low 971. Watching closely. Closed 983, down 11.
DEC MEAL: It sold off from the 310.00 resistance down to 293.00 today. There is some support at 290.00 but it could go lower to approximately 285.00. Just watching. Closed 296.20, down 9.50.
DEC BEAN OIL: Something interesting is happening here. Many of you will recall that earlier this year when the bean complex was rallying, I pointed out that in the past a true bull market in the bean complex occurred only when bean oil was the leader. It definitely was not earlier this year. Bean oil sold off today but made a new high by day's end and closed higher - the complete opposite of the rest of the bean complex. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 36.78, up 60.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: They keep making new highs but barely. They are moving at a snail's pace. Keep stops at 52.40. Closed 54.47, 22.
Position: Long 54.12 (10.12).
Projection: 58.00.
DEC CATTLE: The double top mentioned last time was negated. They rallied yesterday and again today. Other than that, there is not any change. They are still in a downtrend. The only difference is that they are now over the 20 day MA for two days in a row. Just watching. Closed 85.65, up 75.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: I moved stops up to 66.32 last nite. It was reached during the nite session with a profit. It then rallied to 69.49 today and started to sell off. Waiting for a correction to buy again. Closed 67.64, up 56.
Position: Long 64.32 (10.12). Exit 66.29 (10.15). Profit $985.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: It keeps trading right above 110.00 and consolidating between that and 113.00 approximately. We all know what that means when a market does that. It is building up for a move again. I lean towards a sell-off - considering the move from 95.00 up to 113.00 without a correction. Just watching. Closed 112.75, up 40.
DEC COFFEE: I raised the stop last nite to 137.45 because coffee formed an inside day. That suggested it could go either way. The stop was filled during the nite session when the inside day triggered a sell signal. It sold off to 136.30 today. Just watching. Closed 137.75, down 165.
Position: Long 139.25 (10.13). Exit 137.40 (10.15). Loss $693.75.
DEC COCOA: I tried to short it. It triggered a buy instead and rallied to 32.72 today. The contract high is 33.29. That is the area to watch. It is doing one of two things: either testing that high for a market top or it is starting a new wave up that will take out that high. Just watching. Closed 32.67, up 107.
MAR SUGAR: I tried to short it today. It rallied to 23.92 and is now back over the 20 day MA. It is still in a near term downtrend and would have to take out 25.43 to question that. Just watching. Closed 28.85, up 109.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
