MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., OCT. 14, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the peculiarities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December mini silver. Sell 17.515 stop. Protective stop 18.085. Potential projection 15.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts are in resistance.
2. On the weekly chart, a sell signal would form a preliminary key reversal top.
3. On both the monthly and weekly charts, the current wave up has exceeded projections - suggesting an over bought market.
4. The daily chart formed a key reversal top today.
5. A sell signal would negate a buy signal triggered yesterday. Normally when a market does so that quickly, it continues to follow through in the new direction.
6. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini yen. Sell 110.79 stop. Protective stop 112.02. Potential projection 108.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the yen is forming a preliminary key reversal top in a previous resistance area.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top last week.
3. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the yen under the 20 day moving average.
5. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the yen under its major uptrend line formed since the early August low - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
Sell December bonds. Sell 119.21 stop. Protective stop 121.05. Potential projection 117.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, bonds are forming a preliminary key reversal top.
2. On the monthly chart, a sell signal would push bonds under the 20 day MA. They closed right on it today.
3. On the weekly chart, bonds are selling off from the same resistance area that has produced major sell-offs in the past (the high 122.00 area).
4. The daily chart has a key reversal top.
5. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
6. On the daily chart, bonds are trading under the 20 day MA.
7. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push bonds under the uptrend line formed since the early August low - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
8. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: The rally I was pointing out in my last Update fizzled out on Thursday. That was the high that day at 290.10. 290.00 is resistance. It then formed two inside days back to back and today it formed an outside day an sold off down to 275.60. It is struggling to hold at the 20 day MA and closed right under it today. I thought the rally would make it to 300.00 but obviously that is not in the cards for now. This entire rally could be a test of the contract high that is failing. If so, copper could continue to sell off from this level with projections down to 255.00. Closed 279.45, down 6.25.
DEC MINI GOLD: Another new high today at 1069.70. An inside day on Friday triggered a buy yesterday. It has been following through. Based on the potential for the current wave up, gold could reach 1080.00. Just watching. Closed 1065.00, up 7.50.
DEC MINI SILVER: It continues to be the "under performer" and appears to be dragged along by the gold. It is kind of ironic because in the huge move in 1979, it was the gold that was dragged along by the silver. That scenario was quit different though. When gold started to follow silver that time around, it was locked limit for days. It didn't fool around. Silver is acting very "tired." A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 17.840, up 2.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
NOV MINI CRUDE OIL: I tried to buy it yesterday. It had gone past my entry point during the night and then some. It would have been a good trade simply because good trades rarely set up in crude. You normally have to risk too much to take a potential trade. Long term, getting over 75.000 is the next hurtle for crude oil. Just watching. Closed 74.15, up 88.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: It triggered a sell on Friday. I took profit yesterday. It made a low at 110.59 and held. Today it tried to rally but could not get back over the 112.00 support. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 111.40, unchanged.
Position: Short 112.40 (10.9). Exit 111.15 (10.13). Profit $781.25.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It formed a double bottom on the daily chart yesterday. It also has been holding at the 20 day MA even though it would sell off under it during the day. It has resistance up at 98.00 and attempted to get over that today without success. Just watching. Closed 97.72, up 19.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It is testing the new contract low (75.680) on the daily chart. It is also testing long term support at 76.000. I see nothing to do here but watch for now as every time it tries to get back over the 20 day moving average, it fails. It needs to do more than it is currently to suggest a buy. Closed 76.165, down .125.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: I took profit this morning as the financial section started to weaken more than I liked. It has since recovered and trying to hold. Watching closely. Closed 148.200, up .330.
Position: Long 147.170 (10.6). Exit 148.150 (10.13). Profit $612.50.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: Long term it is pushing into the lower end of resistance that goes back to Jan. 2008 through Aug. 2008. That resistance runs all the way up to 100.00. Current high is 97.41. Long term the current wave up has projections up to 102.50. Whether it will accomplish that remains to be seen. It just doesn't have the work under it to push through all that activity the first time around on the long term chart. On the daily chart it broke out of consolidation on the 6th and has continued to rally. Today on the daily chart it is struggling. It may be setting up to test the breakout on the daily chart. That would be normal and an opportunity to buy. Just watching. Closed 96.57, down 10.
DEC BONDS: They triggered a sell on Friday and I took profit the same day. On Monday they rallied and took back every bit of the sell-off. The high was 121.31 on Monday. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 120.29, up 25.
Position: Short 121.14 (10.9). Exit 120.22 (10.9). Profit $750.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
