MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., OCT. 14, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December cocoa. Sell 30.72 stop. Protective stop 31.66. Potential projection 29.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, cocoa is backing off from the same resistance area that formed a major top in July 2008.
2. The monthly chart is forming a preliminary key reversal top this month.
3. On the weekly chart, the current wave up has met projections.
4. The daily chart triggered a sell yesterday.
5. On the daily chart, cocoa sold off under the 20 day MA yesterday and closed under it again today.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long December cotton from 62.50 up to 63.70.
GRAIN COMMENTS: The technicals long term are changing in the grains suggesting a turn around in these markets and the potential for some good rallies.
DEC CORN: I moved the stop up last night to 369 ¼. On Monday it rallied over minor resistance at 375 (which is now support). It has broken out of the huge consolidation mentioned before. That consolidation should produce more to the move than what it has so far. The question, of course, is how will it go about that potential task? It could sell off and test that breakout - which means it could sell off to approximately the 350 area or more. That is the where it broke out. Markets do tend to go back and test breakouts. For now, it has held the 375 support today and made a new high at 386 ¾. Closed 381 ¾, up ½.
Position: Long 366 ¼ (10.9).
Projection: 400.
DEC WHEAT: It has continued to rally even though the long term charts gave no reason to buy it earlier. The monthly chart had triggered another sell last month. Not a good thing for wheat buyers. But there are some positives developing. It has gotten back over the 500 support long term and near term. That is positive. Also, it has now pushed over the 20 day MA on the weekly. Another positive. Also the big funds are short enough wheat to choke a horse - so to speak. If they decide to cover their shorts, which they eventually will do, you can expect a huge rally. In fact, I suspect that is behind a good portion of the rally today. The fundamentals are very bearish for wheat so that is not behind the rally. But one thing is important to remember, all markets are notorious for changing before the fundamentals do. Waiting for a setback to go long. Closed 511 ¼, up 12 ¾.
NOV BEANS: They have been rallying and their monthly chart is starting to change. It has formed a key reversal bottom this month which is positive. When beans do this long term, they tend to have follow through the next month and more - at least in the past they have. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom last week and triggered a buy this week. Speaking of key reversals, not to make it simple, the daily formed a key reversal top today. Not much of a surprise, since it is doing so from a resistance level. I have noticed that in the past (on the daily chart), when beans formed a key reversal top, they would have good follow through for a sell. Will they do so this time? I don't know because the charts are in conflict. Normally long term charts dominate in the end so if the beans sell-off, I will try to buy them. They also violated their near term downtrend on the daily chart. Watching closely. Closed 993, down 6.
DEC MEAL: It reached resistance around 310 today and has started to back off and formed a key reversal top today - just barely - on the daily chart. A setback could be an opportunity to buy since, seasonally, meal goes up this time of year. Also the monthly chart is forming a key reversal bottom this month. The weekly did so last week and triggered a buy today. It did gap up though. If meal can fill that gap at 298.30, it might be a buy area - it is too early to tell. The near term downtrend since the early August high has been violated too - suggesting a trend change from down to up on the daily chart. Watching closely. Closed 306.30, down 1.00.
DEC BEAN OIL: It almost reached resistance up at 37.00 today before it started to sell off on the daily chart and formed a key reversal top. On the monthly chart, it is back over 35.00 support which is positive. The weekly chart triggered a buy last week. It also formed a key reversal bottom a couple of weeks ago - but just barely. More important is that on the weekly chart, bean oil is over the 20 day MA as of this week. If it could test the 35.00 support and hold, it could be a buy at that level considering that it has violated the near term downtrend - suggesting a trend change from down to up. Closed 36.06, down .49.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: They triggered a buy yesterday and have been selling off today but they have been holding at the 52.50 support for three days. Keep stops at 52.40 for now. Closed 53.67, down 15.
Position: Long 54.12 (10.12).
Projection: 58.00.
DEC CATTLE: After rallying for several days up to 85.50 yesterday, they have started to sell off today. They also formed a double top to the recent rally. Most likely this is a setup for another wave down. There isn't any change long term. They still show the potential to go down to 80.00. Closed 84.67, down 62.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It finally triggered a buy on Monday. It sold off today but is holding the 64.00 support. Move stops up from 62.50 to 63.70. Closed 65.88, up 1.20.
Position: Long 64.32 (10.12).
Projection: 70.00.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: On Friday it started to rally and when it was up a few hundred points, I took profit and was grateful. Ha! I should have waited as it went up limit once I got out! Hindsight we are all smart. Today it reached the same area (110.00 up to 115.00) as it did in early August. That area produced a pretty hefty sell-off in August. When it reached this level in early August, it held 110.00 for three days. It is doing the same thing now. It has been holding 110.00 for the last two days. Just watching. Closed 112.90, up .50.
Position: Long 95.60 (10.8). Exit 103.65 (10.9). Profit $1207.50.
DEC COFFEE: It finally triggered a buy this morning and then sold off to 135.80. It then rallied again to close higher. Keep stops at 135.10. Closed 138.45, up 40.
Position: Long 139.25 (10.13).
Projection: 145.00
DEC COCOA: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 31.12, up 44.
MAR SUGAR: On Friday the current wave down met projections. That stopped the sell-off. Yesterday was an inside day and that produced a buy today. This could set up an opportunity to short again. It will run into resistance around 23.00 - 23.30. Watching closely. Closed 22.83, up 1.20.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
