MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, OCT. 9, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades.  Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here.  To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website:  www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com.  If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email.  I look forward to hearing from you!

ABOUT TRADING:  Trading is not easy.  Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be.   That is why a trading plan is so important.  It forces discipline and a removal from emotion.   In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need:  Entry, Exit, Projection.  If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble.   I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.

The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday.  Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days.  To sign up for both register on my website:   http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit.  You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.

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TRADE ALERTS:

Sell December mini yen.  Sell 112.58 stop.  Protective stop 113.55.  Potential projection 109.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On both the monthly and weekly charts, the yen is in resistance.
2.  On the daily chart, the yen is having problems at the 113.00 level.  This same area was a resistance level in late 2008/early 2009 that caused a major sell-off.
3.  On the daily chart, the current wave up has exceeded projections suggesting an over bought market.
4.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell December bonds.  Sell 121.14 stop.  Protective stop 123.09.  Potential projection 118.24.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, bonds are in resistance and have started to sell off from that level.
2.  The daily formed a key reversal top last Friday - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
3.  On the daily chart, bonds are in resistance formed earlier this year.
4.  On the daily chart, the current wave up has met projections.
5.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long December mini euro fx from 145.710 up to 146.410.

METALS COMMENTS:

DEC COPPER:  On the monthly chart copper held at the 20 day MA again this month even though it has a sell signal.  So does the weekly chart.  On all three charts it looks headed for 300.00 again.  Whether it will succeed or not remains to be seen.  On the daily chart it plowed through some hefty resistance today.  It had triggered a buy from an inside day yesterday.  There could be more to this rally.  Just watching.  Closed 289.85, up 11.90.

DEC MINI GOLD:  Last time I pointed out that the current December contract had made a high at 1060 in March 2008 and that was the number to watch.  It reached it today with a new high at 1062.70 and then backed off.  On the weekly chart the current wave up has met projections.  There is the potential for a correction to possibly the 1000.00 level as that now is support.  On the daily chart, however, it has decent support at 1020.00.  Just watching.  Closed 1056.30, up 11.90.

DEC MINI SILVER:  Technically silver still appears to be the better buy.  It tested the 16.000 support last week and held.  It almost reached 18.000 today but that is another resistance level.  Just watching.  Closed 17.815, up .315.

ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:

NOV MINI CRUDE OIL:  Last time I pointed out 73.58 as the number to watch.  Crude rallied today but did not reach that turning point.  For three days now it has attempted to get over 72.00 and cannot do it.  It does have a buy signal since Tuesday but that hasn't helped.  There hasn't been much follow through on the signal.  It has yet to do anything to change the situation that this current rally appears to be a setup for another wave down.  Each setup for an additional wave down has tended to be a long drawn out affair as we see now.  In short, it has to do a lot more than this to change the current trend.  Closed 71.69, up 212. 

DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN:  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 113.01, up 13.

DEC SWISS FRANC:  Like the yen, it is getting into previous territory that caused problems in early 2008.  The only difference is that the yen is farther along.  Consequently, the long term charts suggest that the swiss could have more to its rally.  The 98.00 level is tough resistance on the weekly chart.  Two weeks ago it got over that level and crashed and burned the same week back down to the low 96.00 level.  This week it appears to be giving 98.00 another try.  Right now the swiss has to stay above 97.00.  That is the struggle.  I think this market could go either way.  Closed 97.39, up 66.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX:  I tried to buy it today.  It sold off and took out the contract low.  This is either a "blow off" or the start of a new wave down.  If it cannot hold 76.000, the next stopping point is 75.000.  Just watching.  Closed 76.130, down .535.

DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY:  An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today.  It rallied to 148.160.  On the daily chart, that was a problem area before.  Long term, however, it is far behind the yen and swiss in terms of testing last year's highs. Move stops from 145.710 up to 146.410.  Closed 147.75, up 1.07.
Position:  Long 147.170 (10.6).
Projection:  150.000.

DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR:  For three days it has attempted to hold above 94.00 after rallying over it and closing above it for the first time on Tues.  If it can maintain this gain, it is finally breaking out of the consolidation it has formed since early August.  In comparison to other currencies that broke out of their consolidation a while ago, the CD is way behind.  Closed 95.10, up 1.07.

DEC BONDS:  I was short and did not like the way they acted.  I covered at 122.190 yesterday.  They continued to rally to 123.07 today and then sold off to form an outside day.  I'll try to short them tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 121.23, down 1.05.
Position:  Short 122.01 (10.6.).  Exit 122.190 (10.8).  Loss $562.50.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.