MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, OCT. 9, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy December cotton. Buy 64.10 stop. Protective stop 62.25. Potential projection 70.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a buy signal.
2. On the weekly chart, cotton has held at the 60.00 level for three weeks. That is support.
3. On the daily chart cotton rallied over the 20 day MA this week and has held it on setbacks.
4. On the daily chart, even though cotton has been consolidating since May, it has been in an uptrend during that time. The recent sell-off appears to be correction to a fourth wave up in that consolidation.
5. The daily chart has two buy signals.
Buy December coffee. Buy 135.60 limit. Protective stop 134.05. Potential projection 145.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart triggered a preliminary buy this month.
2. The monthly chart is back over the 20 day moving average and this month's low held at that support.
3. On the weekly chart, coffee held at the 20 day MA last week and formed a key reversal bottom at that support.
4. On the daily chart, coffee rallied over the 20 day MA on Tuesday with follow through.
5. On the daily chart, coffee negated a double top formed yesterday at the 135.00 level. That is now support.
6. On the daily chart, coffee has been trading into a pennant. It broke through that pennant to the upside today.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It triggered a buy today from yesterday's inside day. It reached yesterday's high of 370. Keep stops at 353. Closed 364, up 4 ¼.
Position: Long 366 ¼ (10.9).
Projection: 400.
DEC WHEAT: It triggered a buy today from yesterday's inside day. It is also now over the 20 day MA on the daily chart. That is positive. Long term about the only constructive thing about wheat is that it is trying to hold at the low end of some support formed in early 2007 around 430. If it continues to rally, it will be running into resistance on the long term charts at 500. Closed 474, up 10 ¾.
NOV BEANS: They triggered a buy from an inside day formed yesterday. They are now well over their 20 day MA on the daily chart and most likely headed for the 960 area. Unlike wheat, they are starting to change their tune long term. The monthly is forming a preliminary key reversal bottom. The last time they did so in early 2009 they were off and running. They are also now back over the 900 support. Watching closely to buy. Closed 936, up 24.
DEC MEAL: It triggered a buy today from an inside day formed yesterday. It is now well over the 20 day MA. Long term they are forming a key reversal bottom on the monthly and weekly charts. Seasonally meal rallies this time of year so, like the beans, could be setting up for a turn around. Closed 289.70, up 8.70.
DEC BEAN OIL: As has been the story all year, bean oil is dragging its feet and behind the rest of the bean complex. It did close over the 20 day MA on the daily chart today - hopefully it can sustain it. The monthly chart isn't showing anything to get excited about. The weekly could be triggering a buy if it can rally over 34.83 this week. Bottom line this market needs to get over 35.00 and hold. Closed 34.57, up 53.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: They triggered a buy yesterday from an outside day formed on Tuesday. The key number long term is the 50.00 support. They are making an effort to get back over that level. On the weekly chart the recent sell-off appears to be the correction to a first wave up. The daily chart has confirmed that as it has taken out the high (53.10) of the first wave up today. In short, the recent sell-off was a correction to a first wave up. Watching closely to buy. Closed 53.52, up 1.75.
DEC CATTLE: They appear to have completed another wave down on the daily chart. The new low was 83.40 and a double bottom. If they continue to rally they should run into trouble around 85.00. The long term charts look as though cattle are ultimately headed for 80.00. Closed 84.32, up 25.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: Since last week, cotton has made a complete turn around. The fact that the previous sell-off stopped last Friday and cotton started to rally, suggests that it is going to make another try to get over 64.00. It has succeeded before but has not been able to sustain it. It triggered another buy signal today from yesterday's inside day. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 63.65, up 1.15.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy this morning. It almost reached my projection of 100.00. Today's high 99.00. It did close over the 95.00 resistance area. That is now support. Keep stops at 91.90. Closed 98.65, up 3.30.
Position: Long 95.60 (10.8).
Projection: 100.00.
DEC COFFEE: Last time I was waiting for a setback to go long. That has not occurred yet. It rallied to 139.00 today. It is over the 135.00 resistance. That is now support. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 137.90, up 3.10.
DEC COCOA: The inside day mentioned last time triggered a buy. The follow through has not been there. It did establish a new high at 32.80. Just watching. Closed 32.44, up 5.
MAR SUGAR: It triggered a sell yesterday. It had good follow through and I took profit this morning. Today's low 21.80. That new low confirms a second wave down from the contract high 26.25) made on Sept. 1. A rally should set up an opportunity to short again. Closed 22.54, down 53.
Position: Short 23.47 (10.8). Exit 22.02 (10.8). Profit $1624.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
