MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., OCT. 7, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
GENERAL COMMENT: In my last Update I pointed out that an unusual amount of markets were up against their 20 day moving average (on their daily charts) which can be considerable resistance for any market and that these points needed to be watched closely. The markets mentioned initially started to sell off from that indicator but many quickly recovered to rally over that average. The only ones that sold off a lot and have not rallied over it are: beans, meal, hogs and cattle. All the other markets (on their daily charts) sold off initially but have recovered and now rallied over their 20 day moving average. This could trigger further follow through. All those that recovered had the same feature on their monthly charts: the 20 day moving average on their monthly charts was under current market activity and therefore support.
Only two markets do not have this going for them on their long term charts: the dow and the emini. On their monthly charts they are now pushing up against the 20 day moving average. In short, it is above current market activity, not below. For further follow through, getting over that indicator is critical. Will they do it? You don't know but it is important to be aware of where they are technically. Long term they are also starting to push into some resistance.
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
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TRADE ALERTS: NONE FOR WED.
METALS COMMENTS: Both gold and silver had strong rallies today. Gold took out its historic high. Don't be surprised if they sell off after today's action as that is common when you have a strong rally. If they do that, the key is if they can hold support under the market to set up for an additional rally.
DEC COPPER: In my last Update I saw further sell-off. It sold off to 264.00 on Friday. It has since rallied and reached the 20 day moving average today. That stopped the rally. This is the third time it has tried for that resistance in the last week. It may get over it this time. If so, it will run into further resistance up at 290.00. Overall, this market still looks toppy. Closed 278.45, up 5.75.
DEC MINI GOLD: It triggered a sell signal on Friday. That was short lived. It followed through to 987.00 and then rallied. On Monday the stops were reached and it has continued to rally to a new high today at 1045.00 on the daily chart. What is important is that on the monthly chart, gold finally took out the historic high made in March 2008 at 1033.90. The current December contract made a high in March 2008 at 1060.00. That is the number to watch for now. Closed 1039.70, up 21.90.
Position: Short 995.20 (10.2). Exit 1011.40 (10.5). Loss $537.84.
DEC MINI SILVER: It almost reached its previous high at 17.690 made on the 17th of Sept. Today's high 17.440. Longer term it is a better buy than gold since it has a ways to go to reach its high made in 2008 (21.440). Also in March of 2008, this contract made a high at 22.000 on the daily chart. In short, silver is not near its highs at all versus gold. Just watching. Closed 17.295, up .760.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
NOV MINI CRUDE OIL: An outside day yesterday triggered a buy today. It rallied to the 72.00 resistance and stopped. Overall, in spite of the rally, it is still in a near term downtrend. It has had three waves down. Is the current strength the set up for the fourth wave down? It appeared as though it was doing just that until it held 68.00 yesterday and rallied. It is also holding over the 20 day moving average. If it can get over 72.00, the number to watch is 73.58. Taking that out would put into question the near term downtrend. Closed 70.88, up 47.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I have attempted to short it but the price was never reached. It rallied today and has made another attempt at the high. Since the high at 113.41, it has made two attempts to reach that again. Each attempt is less than the last. At this point, the yen needs to get over 113.00 to try for the 2008 high at 115.00. Closed 112.65, up 88.
DEC SWISS FRANC: Last time I saw the potential for a sell-off to 95.00. It did not materialize. It continued to hold 96.00 and finally got over the 20 day moving average today on the daily chart. Its next hurtle is the 98.00 resistance. It attempted to get over that in late Sept. but could not hold it. On the weekly chart that is pretty hefty resistance. Just watching. Closed 97.37, up 36.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Last time I pointed out that it had succeeded in getting over the 20 day moving average but needed follow through. It could not do it. It sold off again today to 76.280. On the daily chart, the contract low is 76.04. This sell off is either a test of that low that will hold or the start of a new wave down. You don't know. The better support is down at 75.000. Just watching. Closed
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: It triggered a buy today. I had to pay up. It rallied up to 147.610 and is now over the 20 day moving average. There is resistance at 148.000. Considering the work it did under 144.000 that it broke out of early Sept., there should be more to the move. Keep stops at 145.710. Closed 147.090, up 49.
Position: Long 147.170 (10.6).
Projection: 150.000.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: Since my last Update it sold off under the 92.00 support. The next projection was 90.00 but it never made it. On Friday it sold off to 91.24 and has rallied since. It finally got over the 20 day moving average yesterday with continued follow through today. It is now back to the high end of the range that it has been trading in since late July. Closed 94.36, up 86.
DEC BONDS: They triggered a sell today. Keep stops at 123.01 for now. Closed 122.01, down 9.
Position: Short 122.01 (10.6).
Projection: 120.00.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
