The job market is the focus this week, but there will be plenty of other data to digest as well. The first Friday of the month brings about the jobs report and this always gets a lot of attention. However, this doesn't mean that there aren't other reports on tap this week that could be market moving. Below is this week's calendar:

Monday: None

Tuesday: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Redbook, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, State Street Investor Confidence Index

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Petroleum Status Report, ADP Employment Report, GDP, Corporate Profits, Chicago PMI

Thursday: Jobless Claims, Monster Employment Index, Motor Vehicle Sales, Challenger Job Cut Report, Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg. Index, Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales

Friday: Employment Situation Report, Factory Orders

Same-store sales for the week ending Sept. 26 improved as measured by the ICSC and Redbook reports. The ICSC-Goldman data showed a week on week gain of 0.1 percent in same-store sales with the year on year rate at growth of 0.9 percent. The Redbook report showed improvement as well with the year on year rate rising to -2.2 percent from -2.6 percent in the prior week. Though these reports use different calculation and data gathering methods, we can get an idea of strength in retail sales by looking at the direction. However, these reports account for only 10 percent of total retail sales, so it is just another piece of the puzzle.

Home prices in July saw improvement as measured by the S&P Case-Shiller index. The Composite 10 index rose to 155.85 from 153.20 in June with the Composite 20 index rising to 144.23 from 141.86. Las Vegas was the only metropolitan area that saw declines during the month. Year on year, the index is down 12.8 percent for the 10 index and off 13.3 percent for the 20. However, both of these readings are improvements from the prior month. This data obviously lags a bit and this is a bit of a concern given some of the weak home data we have gotten for August. Nonetheless, the worst seems to have passed for the sector which is also evident by the gains seen in home builder stocks since their lows in March.

The Conference Board announced that its index on confidence in September unexpectedly fell. The index came in at 53.1, down from a revised reading of 54.5 in August and well below the expected reading of 57.0. Within the report, the view of the jobs market worsened, which is a concern. Those seeing jobs as hard to get rose to 47.0 percent from 44.3 percent. Those seeing jobs as less plentiful down to 3.4 percent compared with 4.3 percent in August. This report has done little for expectations for the jobs market and retail sales, but hasn't had a huge impact on trading.

The Chicago PMI will provide some insight to the manufacturing sector Wednesday, though the ISM Index on Thursday will garner most the attention. The Chicago PMI index is expected to rise to 52.0 in September from 50.0 in August. A reading above 50 points to expansion in business activity in the Chicago area, both for non-manufacturing and manufacturing businesses. The ISM index for September is expected to rise slightly to 53.5 from 52.9 in August. In August, the index moved above 50 for the first time since the beginning of the recession. There is no doubt that the manufacturing sector is leading the way out of the recession. Other data that will provide insights to manufacturing include construction spending and factory orders. Estimates are for construction spending to fall 0.1 percent in August and factory orders to rise 1.0 percent, which would be the fourth straight month of gains.

The jobs data for September is expected to show a loss of 170,000 nonfarm payrolls. This would be an improvement from August's decline of 216,000 payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to rise a tenth to 9.8 percent. Though negative, we need to remember that payrolls were falling by more than 500,000 a month just this past April and fell 463,000 in June. The results of this data could provide traders will direction until third quarter earnings reports start to flow.

Jody Osborne
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site