MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., SEPT. 30, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December mini gold. Sell 984.50 stop. Protective stop 999.10. Potential projection 960.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, gold has started to sell off from the 1000.00 previous resistance area, and is, once again, trading under it.
2. The daily chart formed a key reversal top on Sept. 17 - suggesting a trend change from up to down. So far that has been confirmed.
3. The daily chart triggered a sell signal on Friday.
4. On the daily chart, gold sold off under the 20 day moving average on Friday. It could not rally back over it today.
5. Gold triggered a sell today from yesterdays inside day.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: It has been trading around the lower end of its range on the daily chart for the last few days. Looking at the monthly and weekly charts, copper looks headed for 250.00. Just watching. Closed 272.90, up .20.
DEC MINI GOLD: It triggered a sell today but did not reach my sell price. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 994.40, up .30.
DEC MINI SILVER: Neither long term chart shows much. The weekly looks like it has finished a wave up and is starting the correctional phase to that wave. About the only thing the monthly suggests is that the current wave up has met projections. Just watching. It is trying to hold 16.000 long term and on the daily and that will probably be the determining factor. Closed 16.178, up .17.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS: All the foreign currencies look positive long term. Near term they seem tired and ready for a good correction.
NOV MINI CRUDE OIL: Switching to November. In previous Updates I pointed out that crude looked "toppy" on the daily chart. Last Monday it started to sell off and reached a new low at 65.50 on Friday - that was from the 72.00 level. It is struggling to hold 66.00 right now. On the weekly chart it is now trading under the 20 day moving average for the first time since mid February. Right now on the daily chart it needs to get back over 68.00 to redeem itself and hold there. It now has a lot of resistance overhead that could push it down to 54.00. Closed 66.71, down 13.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: The weekly chart is giving the first hint of a potential sell-off as it is starting to form a key reversal top. That is misleading in a way because the weekly also triggered a buy this week. The last time this market had a significant sell-off was in July for approximately 700 points. Since then it has rallied 1100 points with only a 300 point sell-off in the process. In short, the yen is overdue for a good correction. Closed 110.94, down 52.
DEC SWISS FRANC: Both long term contracts have a buy signal that has followed through quite well. Neither has given any indication of a top yet. The daily is trying to hold 96.00 but the real support is down at 95.00. Just watching. Closed 96.45, down 29.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It made a new low last week at 76.045. It has rallied since and appears to be tryingto formed another bottom. It is back over 77.000 and attempting to get over the 20 day moving average. The weekly has a key reversal bottom from 76.000. That was good support formed last Nov. - Dec. The monthly chart is not showing anything yet. Just watching. Closed 77.360, up 11.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: Both long term charts have buy signals that have been following through. Near term the fx looks headed for 144.00 support. It is trying to hold at the 20 day moving average on the daily chart but a test of the breakout from the 144.00 would be healthy for the market. Closed 145.680, down .220.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a buy today on the daily chart but is right in the middle of the range that it continues to be stuck in. That range goes from 90.00 up to 94.00. Long term it is in conflict. The monthly chart triggered a buy last month. The weekly chart triggered a sell last week. Best just to watch. Closed 92.27, up 27.
DEC BONDS: Long term this market is very positive. The problem is near term. Bonds are pushing up against 121.28 and that is a resistance area formed in February through the end of April. If they back off from this level, it should be an opportunity to buy. The monthly triggered a buy this month and is now trading over the 20 day moving average for the first time since April. The weekly triggered a buy last week. Watching closely to buy. Closed 121.20, up 6.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
