MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., SEPT. 30, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell November orange juice. Sell 89.10 stop. Protective stop 91.95. Potential projection 80.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, oj has failed to rally and hold above the 20 day moving average for the third month in a row. It is now trading under that indicator again.
2. On the monthly chart, oj tried to rally over the 1000.00 resistance for three months in a row and is selling off again from that level.
3. The weekly chart triggered a preliminary sell signal this week.
4. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5. On the weekly chart, oj is back under the 20 day moving average. That is negative.
6. On the daily chart oj sold off under the 20 day moving average last Thursday. It has traded under that indicator since.
7. On the daily chart, oj made a high on August 12. The recent rally that peaked on Sept. 18 appears to be the set up for a second wave down since that high.
8. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December cocoa. Sell 30.15 stop. Protective stop 31.10. Potential projection 28.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, cocoa rallied up to previous resistance at 32.00 and has been selling off. The last time it was at this level was in 2008 and it produced an extensive sell-off at that time.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top last week from the same area. The weekly had also produced a key reversal top at this level in 2008 prior to a major sell-off.
3. The daily chart formed a key reversal top last week.
4. On the daily chart a sell signal would push cocoa under the 20 day moving average.
5. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It triggered a buy today. It continues to consolidate. This has been going on since early July. The bottom line is that most of the activity is around 325 and higher. Keep stops at 328 ½ for now. Closed 341, up 2 ¼.
Position: Long 342 ¼ (9.29).
Projection: 375.
DEC WHEAT: It has been trying to consolidate since early September at 450 on the daily chart. It took out that support day - new low is 441 ¼. Long term it just doesn't have the supportive technicals that corn does. Wheat just triggered a new sell signal on the monthly chart this month. In earlier Updates I mentioned that 400 looked like a possible target and it still looks that way. Closed 447 ½, down 8 ¼.
NOV BEANS: Their daily chart continues to be in a near term downtrend since the Aug. 13 high. Attempts to get back over the 20 day moving average continue to fail since it collapsed under it on the Aug. 17. They have had two waves down since the 13th. The rally that peaked on Sept. 15 appears to be the set up for a third wave down. The one concern is this wave down is having a real issue with following through. Part of the problem is that last July beans consolidated between 900 and 925 and beans are now stuck in that range again. They also could be at a turning point since this support area is having an obvious influence. Also 900 has been an important number going back into the 90's. You have that pulling them one way and the fact that the monthly chart triggered a sell this month pulling them the other way. Plus the daily triggered a sell signal today. As is usually the case with any market, consolidation is for a reason. Which way will they go. Based on technicals, I have to lean towards further sell-off for now. If beans don't hold 900, their next stopping point should be 800. Just watching. Closed 917, down 2 ½.
DEC MEAL: Like beans it is struggling to hold at a previous support level around 280 even though it is in a near term downtrend since the mid Aug. high. That is also longer term support. Its third wave down started to follow through but was stopped by further support at 270 on the daily chart. Longer term major support is down at 240. Closed 284.80, up .30.
DEC BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell yesterday on the daily chart that has followed through. Today's low 33.28. It does have support at 33.00 on the daily chart but the major long term support is at 30.00. The monthly has a sell signal and the weekly triggered another one this week. Just watching. Closed 33.85, up 22.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: On Sept. 23 they formed a key reversal bottom after a sell-off that lasted for five days on the daily chart. That has been the most extensive sell-off since they bottomed in mid August. They now appear to be starting another wave up. I want to buy them but have been waiting for more longer term support. The weekly chart triggered a sell last week but is trying to hold at 50.00 support. The monthly triggered a sell last month and followed through for over 10.00 points from 55.00 down to 43.57. That could be it as they are now back over 50.00. Watching closely to buy. Closed 50.17, up 45.
DEC CATTLE: Technically they have a lot of positives going for them and I want to buy them. The one concern is that long term they are at the high end of the range they have been stuck in and have started to back off. Watching closely to buy. Closed 85.60, down 17.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: Last week it made a real effort to get over 64.00 and hold. Well, it could not do it. On Friday it sold off from 65.39 to 61.91. That outside day triggered a sell yesterday with more follow through today. It formed another outside day today and closed under the 20 day moving average for the first time since early September. Not too encouraging but on the daily chart, cotton is still stuck in a range from approximately 58.00 up to 64.00. Every other time when it violated that 20 day moving average while in this range, it had further follow through. If that be the case and a repeat is in the makings, cotton should sell off to at least 60.00 if not lower. The weekly just looked like it has finished up another wave up and is in the retracement phase. The monthly chart triggered a buy this month so that tells me that this sell-off should eventually be an opportunity to buy. Watching closely. Closed 61.45, down 1.45.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: I tried to sell it today but it rallied instead. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Clsoed 91.85, up 1.10.
DEC COFFEE: It triggered a sell today and sold off to 125.30 Keep stops at 128.60. Closed 125.50, down 1.65.
Position: Short 126.50 (9.29).
Projection: 120.00.
DEC COCOA: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 30.60, down 25.
MAR SUGAR: Switching to March. The weekly chart triggered a buy this week and it has been off and running. The contract high in March is 26.25 and today's high was 25.15. It is now in some minor resistance but it built a good consolidation between 23.00 and 24.00 before breaking out over that today. Closed 24.94, up 84.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
