September 18th, 2009
See DeCarley Trading in this September issue of Equities Magazine!
Countertrend Friday but Monday may be more telling
Trading volume was nearly non-existent. It almost felt as if the markets were closed for a holiday...but they weren't. I can't say that I blame traders for taking the day off, there was very little guidance during the session. In the absence of economic data, the Fed's purchase of $4.047 billion in Agency debt seemed interesting.
The greenback showed some signs of life, but the gains were minor relative to recent losses and weren't enough to impact the surrounding financial and commodity markets. The dollar gains appeared to be position squaring ahead of the weekend as opposed to actual long interest but this could change if we see some follow through on Monday. Naturally, a stronger dollar should keep Treasuries in favor.
We have been noting the 119'10 pivot in the long bond, and today's early low of 119'12 and subsequent grind higher suggests that the overall sentiment is slightly bullish to neutral. Traders seem to be reluctant to be overly Treasuries before getting a better feel for equities, specifically whether or not they will correct going into next week. We happen to feel as though despite the never-ending bull run in stocks, a pull-back is near. Assuming that we are right about the near-term direction of stocks, we could see bonds trading closer to 122 by early next week. If we are wrong about stocks, bonds may retreat to 117'24. Similarly, our upside target in notes lies at 118'15 and maybe as high as 119 should stocks falter.
Sorry so short, not much to talk about...Have a great weekend!
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
September 11- Our clients were recommended to sell the November 128 calls for 18 or better, we are now trying to buy them back for 5 or better to lock in a quick profit of about $200 per contract before commissions and fees.
September 15- Our clients were recommended to change their orders to 6 and were getting filled.
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Eurodollar Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
