After ten straight higher highs, a mostly "zip with no dips" situation forces bulls to expire intraday on this not-so-scary Triple, umm Quadruple Witching. As of 11:10 ET the SP-500 (SPY) is off a much-less menacing 0.35% on the heels of hefty green shoots efforts and fearful climbing by bulls.
Entering Friday's session, a genuine lack of catalysts and some signs of profit-taking overseas weren't a deterrent for stateside equity bulls with a token bid in hand or hoof. Even a daily doji top after ten days of higher highs now outside the upper Bollinger in the SP-500 which all but suggested the bull had taken things a bit too far and was due some technical backing and filling; didn't seem to discourage our resident bulls.
In truth, a couple of brokerages have attempted to come to the rescue with upgrades this morning. Ever-consuming bulls were tossed one non-discretionary bone in Procter & Gamble (PG) following a raise to "Buy" by Citigroup. Shares are up an impressive 3.25% at 57.35 after taking out its "proper buy point" of 56.50 within a cup-with-handle base on an opening gap.
Aiding and abetting, homebuilders (XHB) KB Homes (KBH) and Toll Bros. (TOL) were raised at BofA to "Buy" and "Outperform" respectively. Both names are building up gains of 3.50%. Separately, Starbucks (SBUX) is steaming higher by a similar 3.50% near 20.80 and hitting fresh and hot year-to-date highs from a short base-on-base pattern following Piper's pied piping "Overweight" tune.
Alas and coupled with the historical tendency of Triple Witching plus the side dish of SSFs to do something other than rattle traders into a volatile tizzy, the broader market now sits slightly pressured. One caveat in today's show, index rebalancing could force some type of drama as we inch towards the Closing Bell.
Elsewhere and forcing bulls to concede intraday, a few fingers are pointing at profit-taking in the Dollar (UUP) as being responsible for some of the broader market's weakness. Bears in the currency have enjoyed a nice run to fresh year-to-date lows and look to be locking in some of those gains with Friday's bid of 0.45% to 22.78.
In turn, the potential turn has helped promote a bit of weakness in dollar-sensitive commodities and supply stocks which have benefited from its downward spiral since its March highs. Related, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is digging into some relative weakness on the session with losses of 4.25% at 45.75. The action puts shares "monbacking!" near potential support from prior daily chart cup highs.
Finally, moving through the lunchtime hour and the SP-500 is continuing to make good on its tendency to tick off raging bulls and bears with a still quiet loss of 0.40%. Looking forward beyond what this afternoon may or may not bring due to some fast money type index re-shuffling and front-running, the market is quite simply overbought and due for a rest.
The latest technical item that suggests caution as the prudent course of action is an overbought RSI 14. The indicator has a very good tendency to accurately nail ensuing periods of corrective behavior or lateral consolidation and is currently signaling in the SPY. On top of gains of 61% since March, 7.30% for the ten day period and as we move deeper into the market's perennially weakest months; don't let the trend traders fool you into thinking what's a waste of time.
Chris Tyler
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
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The information offered here is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only, the use of which is the responsibility of the individual.









