MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR MONDAY, SEPT. 21, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
PLEASE NOTE: The Market Update did not go out yesterday as I was working from home and my computer crashed. The closes I refer to in this Update are yesterday's closes.
I will not be in the office next week. There will not be any Market Updates or Trade Alerts during that time.
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday. Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days. To sign up for both register on my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit. You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.
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TRADE ALERTS: There will not be further recommendations until I return on Sept. 28.
GRAIN COMMENTS: Some of the charts are starting to show conflict which can be the first sign of an attempted trend change. More detail is given below.
DEC CORN: The one day rally was short lived. Corn sold off the next day and is now trying to hold 325 on the daily chart. Unlike the other grains, long term nothing has changed and it continues to look positive as long as it holds 300 long term. So far, that has been a key area since 2006. Closed 329, down 7 ¼.
DEC WHEAT: It triggered a buy yesterday from Wed. inside day. The daily has also formed a key reversal bottom. Other than that there is nothing on the longer term charts that suggest a bottom yet. Just watching. Closed 461 ¾, down 5 ½.
NOV BEANS: They triggered a buy yesterday from Wed. inside day on the daily chart. They have a real issue with that 20 day moving average. They can't seem to get over it. They had the same problem in late August when they tried to rally. It stopped them at that time too prior to the last major sell-off. Even though the daily has a buy signal, since the Aug. 13 high, beans have been in a near term downtrend. This recent rally could be the set up for a third wave down so if that buy signal is negated, be careful. Beans need to sell off under 928 ¼ to negate it. Their weekly chart is starting to turn more positive though. It has formed a key reversal bottom and has a gap up at 1045. We all know how markets are drawn to gaps. Too much conflict going on. Just watching. Closed 953, up 2 ½.
DEC MEAL: It has had two inside days back to back. Long term it sure is suggesting that it wants to hold 280.00. The weekly chart also has a gap at 340.50. Other than that, since the Aug. 7 high, this market has been in a near term downtrend. This recent rally could be the set up for a third wave down since that high. Just watching. Closed 293.30, down .70.
DEC BEAN OIL: It triggered a buy yesterday with continued follow through in the night session. Its weekly chart is now forming a key reversal bottom. It also has a gap up at 35.95. The monthly shows nothing. Closed 34.96, up 18.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: Switching to December. An inside day triggered a sell today. This sell-off should be an opportunity to buy. There is minor support at 50.00 but the better support is down at 47.50. If the ongoing rally since the mid Aug. low is the first wave up, a correct of 50% would be around 48.00. Closed 52.02, up 57.
DEC CATTLE: Switching to December. I have pointed out that cattle needed to get over 87.50 to get past the 20 day moving average major problem. That did not happen and they have made a new low. Current low today is 84.72. They negated the key reversal bottom they had formed on Sept. 2 and the support they established at 86.25 on the daily chart. Long term it looks like they are going to test their support. There has not been any negative change. Closed 85.35, down 1.30.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: I kept moving my stop up and it was reached during the night. It is now in resistance at the 64.00 level. Closed 64.18, up 66.
Position: Long 60.65 (9.8). Exit 63.25 (9.18). Profit $1300.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: It has continued to rally since my last report. Current high is 104.50. There is some resistance at 105.00 so possibly it will have a correction from this level. A sell-off to the 95.00 area could be an area to watch for a buy. Closed 102.65, 3.85.
DEC COFFEE: It continued to rally since my exit with a high at 137.10 for today (so far). It is in minor resistance. Either way it appears to be starting a second wave up since the July 10 low. If this wave follows through it should take out 141.65. Considering the rally so far, it may have to retrace to accomplish that goal. Long term it is above the 20 day moving average on the monthly chart. It will need to hold that for follow through. It has attempted to stay over that average for four months in a row on the monthly chart - without success. Closed 136.05, up 1.85.
DEC COCOA: What a wild market. On Wednesday it made a new high at 31.50 and then collapsed down to 29.20. It then rallied back to the high end of the day's range. Yesterday it formed an inside day. Today it formed an outside day. The long term charts still look positive. Just watching. Closed 30.74, unchanged.
OCT SUGAR: I was trying to short it but it rallied instead. It is now trying to hold above the 20 day moving average. There could be more to this rally that could set up for a short position. Closed 22.66, up 17.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
