September 17th, 2009
See DeCarley Trading in this September issue of Equities Magazine!
Bonds may be pricing in stock correction
I will keep this short and sweet as we are preparing for today's webinar with the New York Institute of Finance (I hope to see you there).
The bond market seems to be preparing for a correction in equities, but whether or not it will materialize is still unknown. An unprecedented amount of sidelined cash making its way to the markets has enabled one of the largest and swiftest bull moves in stock market history. However, judging by the refusal of bonds and notes to retreat there seems to be a disagreement between stock and Treasury traders in regards to the economic recovery that has yet to be resolved.
Historical stats suggest that stocks do well in early September but fall short later in the month and bond traders haven't forgotten. From a technical standpoint, we came into the day virtually neutral bonds and notes but today's strength seems to point toward another rally. However, it will take equity weakness to keep the momentum going. We still haven't given up on the possibility of a rally to 122 in the long bond and 119 in the notes and if we are right about a stock market correction by early next week, Treasuries could hit our upside targets.
Sorry so brief!
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling.
September 11- Our clients were recommended to sell the November 128 calls for 18 or better, we are now trying to buy them back for 5 or better to lock in a quick profit of about $200 per contract before commissions and fees.
September 15- Our clients were recommended to change their orders to 6 and were getting filled.
Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Eurodollar Futures Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in trading futures.
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
