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EHedger Grains Market Commentary 9/16/09


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SETTLEMENTS 9/16

Grain Settlements - 9-16

Corn, beans and wheat all closed lower. However, late day buying did move prices significantly off the lows by the close.  The frost concern late next week continues to be the main focus of the market.  The morning weather models had "a strong front that looks to bring chances for some frost and even some freezing temps in the northern Midwest by the second half of next week."  However, in the midday run the GFS took the cold air out of the forecast for the Midwest at the end of next week.  In addition, the forecast does not see any cold weather threats during the 11-16 day forecast.

Obviously, the frost forecast is still a long way off. Eight days away is an eternity in terms of an accurate weather forecast.  In between now and then there is a good chance the frost will be put in and taken out of the forecast numerous times.  Overall, to see what type of damage, if any, the weather will actually do we will have to wait and see exactly how cold the weather gets and how far south the cold temps actually reach. Until that time, the market will probably continue to chop around and overreact to every model run.  Either way producers need to remember that just last week December corn was trading 302 and November beans 892.  Sure if we do have a hard freeze prices could go much higher. However, if this frost misses and farmers wait until they are sure the crop is going to finish up without a frost, corn and beans could easily be at new lows. Don't get me wrong, we would love to see corn and bean prices take off from these levels, but even more than that what we don't want to see is corn and bean prices take out the lows with farmers still holding large amounts of unsold grain. Therefore, we recommend...  Please give us a call to discuss different strategies.  

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Justin Kelly grew up working on his family's farm in western Illinois, and has been intimately involved in the agricultural industry his entire life. After graduating from Purdue University with a BS degree in Agribusiness Management, Justin was a CBOT member and corn pit broker for Iowa Grain Co. In 2006 Justin went on to lead Iowa Grain's research department. Today as President and Principle of EHedger, Justin applies his hands on experience of both farming and futures trading to helping producers and merchandisers implement solid risk management strategies tailored to their specific requirements.

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