MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., SEPT. 16, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
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TRADE ALERTS:
Sell October sugar. Sell 20.83 stop. Protective stop 22.05. Potential projection 18.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and the weekly charts have major key reversal tops.
2. The daily chart has a key reversal top.
3. On the daily chart, sugar's attempts to rally continue to be stopped by the 20 day moving average. That same are is also previous resistance
4. On the daily chart, sugar formed a key reversal top to last week's rally.
5. On the daily chart, sugar triggered a sell yesterday when it took out the low of Friday's outside day.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long December cotton from 60.45 up to 61.65.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: My buy price was finally reached this morning. Long term it continues to hold its double bottom on the monthly and weekly charts at the major 300.00 support and today's action further confirms that formation. It rallied to 347 ¾ today - up limit. My projection was 350 so I took profit. My average exit was 343. Closed 346 ½, up 28 ¾.
Position: Long 325 ¼ (9.15). Exit 343 (9.15). Profit $887.50.
Projection: 350.
DEC WHEAT: Last time I pointed out that it was at the low end of 2006-7 support. It appears it will try to hold that level as it rallied over 25 cents today. Today's high 481 ½ - pretty much where the 20 day moving average intersects. Watching closely. Closed 470 ½, up 16 ½.
NOV BEANS: My long term projection of 900 mentioned in my last Update was reached. Nov. beans made a low at 892 yesterday before rallying today. Today's high 977 3/4. They also rallied over the 20 day moving average and closed on it. What is interesting is that beans had a similar one day rally (like this one) at the end of July when they came out of the same support area as they did today. That time they continued to follow through and rallied to 1050. The one difference, this time they did not establish the base that they did in July. Watching closely. Closed 960, up 51.
DEC MEAL: Long term it is trying to hold 280.00 support. Like the beans, meal had a comparable one day rally (like this one) at the end of July when it broke out of the same support area as now. The only difference is that it doesn't have the near term consolidation under it that it did in July. Like beans, it continued to rally, reaching 320 at that time. Closed 298.30, up 19.50.
DEC BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell on Monday. Today it rallied and stops were reached. It then rallied to 36.19. A good example why you always use stops. By the end of the day it had given back half of its gains. Closed 34.82, up 1.03.
Position: Short 33.53 (9.14). Exit 34.95 (9.15). Loss $852.
Projection: 30.00.
MEAT COMMENTS:
OCT HOGS: They triggered a sell Monday from Friday's inside day. If this is a correction to a first wave up, there should be more sell-off. Hogs rallied from a low of 43.05 up to 54.05 on Sept. 10. A 50% retracement would be to 48.60 approximately. Today they formed an outside day as they rallied to 53.65. Waiting to buy. Closed 53.42, up 247.
OCT CATTLE: Stops were reached on Friday. Today's low 86.75. That is also a double bottom - assuming it holds. Cattle continue to be held back by the 20 day moving average. They need a close over 87.50 to get them past that problem. So far, even though they have rallied above that average and that resistance, they cannot close over it. Waiting to buy. Closed 87.22, up 175.
Position: Long 87.25 (9.7). Exit 86.95 (9.11). Loss $120.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It finally closed over 62.00 yesterday. That is now good support and further increases the potential for a follow through rally. Today's high 63.64. Move stops from 60.45 up to 61.65. Closed 63.02, up 81.
Position: Long 60.65 (9.7).
Projection: 64.00.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: After attempting a key reversal bottom on Friday that it could not quite pull off, it rallied over 90.00 today to 94.10. The 90.00 level should now be good support. Long term, it is now trying to get over the 20 day moving average on the monthly chart. That is positive. On the weekly chart, it is clearly over it. The sell-off that now appears to have ended, may have been the correction to the last wave up (long term) which means that it is now setting up for a third wave up on the weekly chart. Watching closely to buy. Closed 95.35, up 5.45.
DEC COFFEE: It triggered a buy on Friday. It met my projection on Monday and then some. I kept moving up the stop and was finally stopped out with a profit at 132.60. Long term it has resistance at 135.00 and reached 135.20 today. Closed 134.60, up 1.50.
Position: Long 126.50 (9.11). Exit 132.60 (9.14). Profit $2287.50.
DEC COCOA: The gap mentioned last time at 30.94 on the weekly chart has been filled. The current high is now 31.17. On the daily chart, it has a lot of support now right under 30.00 to push it higher. Just watching. Closed 31.05, up 51.
OCT SUGAR: I keep trying to short it. It continues to try to rally but has been stopped by the 20 day moving average for the last three days. I'll try to sell it again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 21.78, down 28.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
