What a trading day on Thursday with silver down 200 and copper wire up 2 ticks at the end of the day. We mentioned a couple weeks ago that this investment flow of money would find its way into the grain markets some day. We just wish we knew when. And if it does not rain in southern Kansas next week you will see a parabolic move in Kansas City Wheat higher on 7,8,9 times the average daily volume. Even the head of the Australian Wheat Board talking about the outlook for pricing on the Australian wheat in the next year points to our country to set the price and the importance of rain in the hard red winter belt next week.

The soybean trade continues to closely monitor the rally in crude oil, which is stimulating buying in the soybean oil market as another source of energy. As US biodiesel production capacity increases over the next few years, we expect US soybean oil supplies to tighten significantly. However, with nearby crush margins improving, we expect the US soybean crush pace to accelerate, which could still result in old crop US soybean oil carryout increasing to near 3.0 billion pounds, which could have negative implications for the market.

Brazil's soybean exports during April appear to be huge, possibly totaling a record large 4.0 million metric tonnes vs. 2.6 million metric tonnes last year and 3.3 million metric tonnes the previous year. This likely indicates large shipments to the EU, possibly an indication that the effects of bird flu may not be as bad as expected.

Soybean market price direction could continue to be influenced by the corn planting pace, which will largely determine the magnitude of a potential acreage shift from soybeans to corn and the eventual soybean planting pace. Strength in outside markets and the funds large net short position in soybeans could continue to provide short - term support for the soybean market.