MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, SEPT. 11, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the peculiarities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday. Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days. To sign up for both register on my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit. You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.
ESTABLISHING A TRADING ACCOUNT: I offer brokerage services and personal assistance for every level of trader. You will work with me directly. Feel free to call or email me at any time without obligation. I welcome hearing from you!
TRADE ALERTS:
Sell December bean oil. Sell 33.72 stop. Protective stop 34.95. Potential projection 30.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a sell signal.
2. On the weekly chart, bean oil sold off under the 35.00 support last week and continues to trade under it this week.
3. On the weekly chart, bean oil sold off under the 20 day moving average two weeks ago. That is negative.
4. On the daily chart, a sell at 33.72 would push bean oil under the 34.00 support.
5. On the daily chart, a sell signal would negate a key reversal bottom formed this week.
6. The daily chart triggered a sell today.
7. The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
Buy December coffee. Buy 126.30 stop. Protective stop 123.15. Potential projection 130.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both the monthly and weekly charts continue to hold at the 120.00 major support.
2. On the monthly chart, coffee rallied over its major downtrend and has closed over it for the last two months.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom last week.
4. On the weekly chart, a buy signal would push coffee over the 20 day moving average.
5. On the daily chart, coffee is back over the 125.00 support.
6. A buy signal would push coffee over the 20 day moving average on the daily chart.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long October cattle from 86.30 up to 86.95.
Long December cotton from 58.39 up to 59.39.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It is attempting to rally. What concerns me is that the 20 day moving average and resistance at 320-325 almost intersect. There is now a lot of resistance up at the 320-325 area. The market spent two months establishing that. It then broke out to the downside from that area a week ago. Will three days of trading activity under that level be enough to push back up through that resistance - coupled with the 20 day moving average in the way? I would be surprised. That is the bad news. The good news is that if this breakout to the downside is a fake out (which markets will do), it could rally back into that area again and start to consolidate again. When it's a fake out, they will do that without establishing a good base first to push it back up there. Additional good news is that both the weekly and monthly charts have double bottoms and corn, long term, persists in holding the 300 level (basis the Sept. contract). That level is pretty important. It has had every excuse to go under 300 and it doesn't do it. Corn is notorious for following beans and they have sold off $2.00 since mid August. During the same time frame, corn held the above mentioned support. Finally all corn could do was sell off 20 cents maximum? I have seen corn do this before and it is giving a lot of indications that it has bottomed. Watching closely to buy. Closed 315 ¼, up 5 ½.
DEC WHEAT: It continues to push into the support it established in mid 2006 to early 2007. It is now at the low end of it. It could sell off to 425 (basis the Sept). That is where it will start to run into the next level of support. That's approximately 10 cents under the market. Just watching. Closed 458 ¾, up 2 ½.
NOV BEANS: They formed an inside day yesterday and today. I have no clue which direction they will go near term. On the daily chart they are still holding in the same support area formed in July and mentioned in another Update. Longer term, however, this market sure looks headed for 900 (basis the Nov.). At this point the question is, will they rally first or just keep going down as technically they are indicating they are going to 900 sooner if not later? Just watching. Closed 926 ½, down 2.
DEC MEAL: Its daily chart is quite similar to beans in that it is trying to hold support formed in July. Longer term, I still see lower prices. Just watching. Closed 285.50, up .20.
DEC BEAN OIL: It has been stuck in a range between 34.00 up to 35.00. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 34.25, down 3.
MEAT COMMENTS:
OCT HOGS: I took profit this morning. Big mistake! They then rallied over 200 points. You never know but my projection was 52.50 and they had reached 52.20 during the night. Close enough. Just watching. Closed 52.42, up 97.
Position: Long 49.25 (8.28). Exit 51.95 (9.10). Profit $1080.
OCT CATTLE: They have continued to follow through today but then did a nasty thing. They formed a key reversal top and outside day. I moved stops up from 86.30 to 86.95. Closed 87.22, down 32.
Position: Long 87.25 (9.7).
Projection: 90.00
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It is not doing much but it is at least holding 60.00 support. It sold off today with a low at 60.01. Move stops from 58.39 up to 59.39. Closed 60.92, up 15.
Position: Long 60.65 (9.7).
Projection: 64.00.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: The weekly chart suggests more sell-off. It triggered a sell last week and traded under the 20 day moving average this week for the first time since the end of June. The monthly chart is also now under the 20 day moving average. It appears headed for 80.00. There is no change since my last report - I still see this as the correction to a potentially first wave up. Closed 89.25, down 170.
DEC COFFEE: I attempted to buy it. It formed an outside day instead. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 124.65, down 55.
DEC COCOA: I tried to sell cocoa but it rallied and broke out of the range it has been stuck in. It is now trading over 30.00 and made a high today at 30.85. On the weekly chart it has a gap at 30.94. I suspect it will at least fill that even though it was a break away gap. They don't have to be filled. After that the next resistance will be the 32.00 area. Closed 30.67, up 34.
OCT SUGAR: I have attempted to short it. It rallied instead with a high at 21.88. It will run into resistance at 22.00 and the 20 day moving average comes in at 22.35. This rally could be an opportunity to short it. Closed 21.79, up .80.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
