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Morning Watch, Sept. 9



Futures point to lower open ahead of key report on economic activity from the Fed. September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks, yet the major market indices have moved higher so far this month. Besides the Fed Beige Book release this afternoon, speeches by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on inflation and comments from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will get attention.

Overseas markets are mixed with Asian stocks mostly lower with the Hang Sang off more than one percent. European indexes are higher this morning with the FTSE in England up three quarters of a percent. Gains in Europe are being led by oil and auto related stocks.

Speaking of oil, the commodity continues to trade near $71 a barrel ahead of OPECs meeting in Vienna. Traders fully expect the cartel to leave production quotas alone. Crude prices are up 50 percent in 2009, but are trading at half the highs seen in July 2008. On Tuesday, oil related stocks help led a rally for the major market indices with the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH) rising more than three percent.

Mortgage applications for the week ending Sept. 4 rose 9.5 percent, the biggest gain since April. The combination of lower mortgage rates and the upcoming end to the first time buyer credit led to gains. The 30-year mortgage rate fell 13 basis points to 5.02 percent, helping lift the refinance index 22.5 percent.

Health care stocks will continue to get attention with President Obama set to address the nation on his health care plan tonight. This sector was the worst performing sector on Tuesday on concerns about how the President's plan will impact profits. Shares of most health care related stocks saw losses on Tuesday. Shares of Aetna (AET) fell 1.8 percent with Cigna (CI) down 1.7 percent and Humana (HUM) off 3.0 percent.

In earnings news, women's clothing retailer Talbot's (TLB) reported better than expected results. TLB lost 45-cents a share, but this was 10-cents better than estimates and was above year ago numbers. Traders are concerned about consumer spending given the continued weakness in the jobs market. TLB shares are getting a nice boost from their report with the stock up nearly 10 percent in premarket trading.

Jody Osborne
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site


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