September 8th, 2009
Register at DeCarleyTrading.com for our FREE webinar with the New York Institute of Finance on September 17th. We will explore whether speculation in stock index futures is more efficient than ETF's.
Bulls are back
Merger and acquisition news awoke the sleeping bull. From an investor point of view, if firms are willing to initiate large business transactions then they must be optimistic about the prospects of business going forward. Accordingly, if the "big bucks" are investing the recovery so should the retail trader....right? Well, at least for now that is the current market theme and it seems as though the rally has some room to run. Also helping move the markets higher, the world's largest 20 economies agreed to continue stimulus efforts to aid the global recovery.
Just because it is post-Labor Day, doesn't mean that the volume is back. Looking at the numbers (and my IM list) it appears as though many traders opted for an extra-long weekend. It may take a few weeks to fill the trading desks back up and get back to a more realistic account of price movement. In the meantime, light volume leaves the door open for nearly anything.
While we were trying to enjoy the Labor Day holiday, the overseas markets were soaring. Consequently, the U.S. indices have forged an impressive comeback and appear to be looking even higher. Coming into the weekend, I inaccurately assumed that the selling pressure would continue moderately lower but it is now apparent that despite the fact that our downside targets weren't completely fulfilled it was enough of a correction in the eyes of the market. It now seems as though a retest of the highs is in the works. In-fact, it "feels" as though the light volume could propel the S&P to 1055 and maybe even 1070 if there is supportive news. Keep in mind that the markets tend to start September on good footing but fail later in the month as mutual funds lock in profits ahead of the quarter end. Therefore, we will grow increasingly bearish into the decline.
We are looking for a bit above 1700 in the NASDAQ and 589 in the Russell but we see the possibility for 599.
* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does. Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations are based the full sized S&P unless otherwise noted.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.
NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701
http://www.carleygarnertrading.com/
http://www.decarleytrading.com/
*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
