MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., SEPT. 8, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call (888-301-8120) or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
GENERAL COMMENT: Last week I pointed out that with gold breaking out, hopefully we would finally see some follow through in other markets. Since then those currencies that have been consolidating, broke out to the upside too. What you need now is follow through. Of the metals, I am not impressed with gold's follow through, if you can call it that. I would be very careful. Silver is performing much better. If gold doesn't follow through pretty soon and it turns out to be a fake out (that is a pattern seen more often with markets today as I have pointed out many times), I would then have to question the supposed breakout in those currencies that have been consolidating. Be very careful. See more detail in my comments below.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy December bonds. Buy 119.250 stop. Protective stop 118.100. Potential projection 121.280.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a key reversal bottom.
2. On the weekly chart. bonds rallied over the major downtrend five weeks ago suggesting a trend change from down to up.
3. On the weekly chart, bonds have been trading over the 20 day moving average for four weeks.
4. The weekly chart has a buy signal.
5. On the daily chart bonds formed a double bottom today.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: Last time I suggested that copper was forming a range. That continues to be the case. But as we all know, when a market sets up a range, it is to build the momentum for a move. I lean towards a rally. Its main obstacle is 300.00. That is resistance. The monthly has a buy and is back over the 20 day moving average. The weekly will be triggering one if it can rally over 298.90. The one concern is that a buy signal near resistance isn't as "strong" as it would be at a support. On the daily chart, since the low in mid August, copper has been forming an uptrend within this consolidation process. All together, there are a lot of positives. Closed 295.60, up 8.95.
DEC MINI GOLD: An inside day on Friday triggered a buy today. Be careful. In my last Update I gave some potential projections - assuming gold follows through. On both long term charts it is right back at the same level that produced a correction in February of this year. As pointed out last time, gold has broken out of the pennant long term to the upside but on the monthly is has done so just barely. It needs to follow through and soon. I watched the metals in late 1979 when silver and gold made their moves. I know what they can do. Considering all the hype about gold, it should be off and running. It is not. It barely closed higher today. My point is that gold is at a very critical level and could get volatile. I am not impressed by its action today. The real test is if gold can take out the high on the monthly at 1033.90 and continue to follow through. Just watching. Closed 999.80, up 3.10.
DEC MINI SILVER: I think silver has more potential because it is coming from lower numbers and, unlike gold, it is clearly over its problem area: 15.000. It will hit resistance around 17.500. Closed 16.510, up 22.50.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS: Switching to the December currencies.
OCT MINI CRUDE OIL: What happened here? After starting to form a 1,2,3 top, today it rallied over 300 points and is back over the 20 day moving average. It is also back over 70.00. Possibly this rally is a set up for another wave down. I don't know. Too early to tell. Best just to watch. Closed 71.10, up 308.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I want to buy it but it is in resistance. It was not consolidating like the other currencies but has been forming a consistent uptrend. Watching closely. Closed 108.40, up 82.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It broke out of its consolidation. I tried buying it last week but it did not occur. Waiting for a setback to go long as the long term charts have been positive for some time. It is now over the 95.00 resistance. Closed 95.58, up 1.19.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: I have tried to buy it but it finally sold off and took out the contract low. On the monthly chart it is at the high end of some minor support. The major support is down at 75.000. Just watching. Closed 77.590, down 68.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: I tried to sell it but it rallied instead. Long term it is now pushing over some resistance. It now has strong support at 144.000 on the daily chart. Just watching. Closed 144.890, up 180.
DEC CANADIAN: I tried to sell it but it rallied instead. Unlike some of the other currencies, it has not taken out the current resistance (94.00) on the daily chart. The 90.00 level is good support on the monthly with a suggested projection to 95.00. Converting that to the December contract, it has good support at 92.00. Watching closely to buy. Closed 92.53, up 42.
DEC BONDS: I tried to buy them today. My price was not reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 118.19, down .150.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
