MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., SEPT. 8, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades.  Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here.  To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website:  www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com.  If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email.  I look forward to hearing from you! 

ABOUT TRADING:  Trading is not easy.  Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be.   That is why a trading plan is so important.  It forces discipline and a removal from emotion.   In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need:  Entry, Exit, Projection.  If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble.   I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.

The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday.  Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days.  To sign up for both register on my website:   http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit.  You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.

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TRADE ALERTS:

Sell December cocoa. Sell 28.75 stop. Protective stop 29.90. Potentin projection 27.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. Both the monthly and the weekly charts are in resistance.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top two weeks ago.
4. The daily chart is in resistance.  This area has produced sell-offs in the past
5.  A sell signal would push cocoa under the 20 day moving average.
6. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell October sugar.  Sell 20.47 stop.  Protective stop 21.72.  Potential projection 19.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and weekly charts have key reversal tops.
2.  A sell signal would trigger a sell on the weekly chart.
3.  The daily chart formed a key reversal top last week.
4.  On the daily chart, sugar sold off under the 20 day moving average last Friday.
5.  On the daily chart, sugar sold off under support it had formed at the 22.00 level.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

GRAIN COMMENTS: 

DEC CORN:  It continues to hold 300 long term.  Other than that, there isn't anything new in this market.  Just watching.  Closed 307 ½, up 1 ¼.

DEC WHEAT:  The low last month on the monthly chart was 459.  If wheat takes that out, wheat will be triggering a second sell on the monthly chart.  That is the number to watch (basis the Dec. contract).  Today's low 461 ½.  Just watching.  Closed 459, down 12 ¾.

NOV BEANS:  Stops were reached today with a profit.  They also formed a key reversal bottom right in the middle of support formed between early and late July.  The long term charts do not look as good.  The monthly has triggered a sell signal this month.  But the weekly chart has a big between 983 ½ up to 1045.  In short, no pun intended, this market could probably go either way from here.  I would still lean towards shorting it if it rallied.  Closed 936 ½, up 14 ½.
Position:  Short 965 (9.1).  Exit 943 (9.7).  Profit $220.

DEC MEAL:  It has formed a key reversal bottom today right at the 280.00 support on the daily chart.  As of this month, long term meal has failed to hold the 300.00 support (basis the October contract).  Not a good sign.  A rally would be an opportunity to short it.  Closed 284.50, up 3.40.

DEC BEAN OIL:  It formed a key reversal bottom today on the daily chart.  But, like the rest of the bean complex, long term it doesn't look that great.  The monthly chart has a sell signal and is failing to hold the 35.00 support (basis the October contract).  That is now resistance.  A rally should be an opportunity to short it.  Closed 34.80, up .57.

MEAT COMMENTS:

OCT HOGS:  On the monthly chart, they are back over the 50.00 support.  That is constructive - of course, they have to hold it.  On the daily chart, they triggered another buy today.  Keep stops at 49.40.  Closed 50.97, up 47.
Position:  Long  49.25 (8.28).
Projection:  52.50.

OCT CATTLE:  They triggered a buy today on the daily chart and the weekly chart.  The 87.50 level on the weekly is some resistance that they need to get over.  Their high today was 87.62.  Keep stops at 86.30.  Closed 87.10, up 45.
Position:  Long 86.25 (9.7.09).
Projection:  90.00

SOFTS COMMENTS:

DEC COTTON:  It triggered a buy today.  I had to pay up.  It is now over the 20 day moving average and back over 60.00 support on the daily chart.  The weekly is also clearly over the 20 day moving average. Keep stops at 58.39.  Closed 60.76, up 1.13.
Position:  Long 60.65 (9.7).
Projection:  64.00.

NOV ORANGE JUICE:  This is a mixed bag.  The weekly triggered a sell last week but it has been holding at the 20 day moving average last week and, so far, this week on the weekly chart.  That also intersects with the 90.00 support.  As pointed out before, when you have more than one technical indicator intersecting at the same point, that strengthens the support or resistance - whichever applies.  On the monthly chart it is now under the 20 day moving average.  So we have a conflict going on.  The daily triggered a sell last week.  I still see OJ as having bottom and this potential sell-off could set up for a correction to a first wave up.  It is too early to determine yet.  Just watching.  Closed 91.25, down 40.

DEC COFFEE:  I tried to sell coffee but it rallied instead.  It reached the 20 day moving average today and backed off.  Longer term it continues to hold the 120.00 support this month.  That stopped the sell-off last month.  The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom last week so there are some positives developing.  Just watching.  Closed 124.70, up 60.

DEC COCOA:  I tried to sell it.  It reached my price at night but then rallied during the day to form an outside day.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 29.51, up 15. 

OCT SUGAR:  Sugar is forming some not so sweet technical indications that could be negative for the market.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 20.87, down 73.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.