MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, SEPT. 4, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ARE WE THERE YET? By that I mean are we finally going to see some trends develop. Several markets are suggesting that more and more. The grains have finally had some follow through. The metals too - which is even more important. Why? The fact that gold finally broke out of the pennant and is starting to follow through, could finally trigger follow through in some other markets - particularly in financially related ones such as the currencies. They have been stuck in ranges in most instances for longer than I care to remember. The gold rally could trigger a clearing of congestion in several markets because a "statement" is possibly finally being made. A possible analogy would be a herd of sheep at a rivers edge. They mull around there going nowhere. Finally one braves the water, and jumps in to swim to the other side. Soon the rest follow. I am not saying all markets will rally. Many should go in the direction they have been suggesting for some time but could not quite do it. It should be interesting and hopefully this will offer some good opportunities for a change. We'll see!
PLEASE NOTE: The Holiday Schedule is as follows: On Friday all pits will close the regular time. Globex currencies, int. rates, financials, metals & energies close at 3:15 versus the normal 4:00.
On Monday only some globex markets will open. They are: financials, interest rates, currencies, ice dollar but will close at 12:00. Metals & energies will close at 12:15. I will not be in the office on Monday.
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday. Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days. To sign up for both register on my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit. You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy September dollar index. Buy 79.250 stop. Protective stop 78.000. Potential projection 81.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. Both long term charts and the daily chart continue to hold the 78.000 support.
2. The weekly chart is triggering a preliminary buy signal this week.
3. The weekly has a key reversal bottom suggesting a trend change from down to up.
4. On the daily chart, the dollar continues to hold the uptrend established since the 77.520 low in early August.
5. On the daily chart, since the 77.810 low on Aug. 21, each sell-off has been less than the previous one.
6. A buy signal would push the dollar over the 79.000 support area and the 20 day moving average.
7. A buy signal would negate a sell signal triggered today. Normally when a market does so, it follows through in the new direction.
Sell September mini eurocurrency. Sell 141.750 stop. Protective stop 143.550. Potential projection 139.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the fx is back under the 20 day moving average. It closed above it last month but is not following through. This has been an issue for four months and is negative.
2. Both long term charts are in resistance.
3. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the fx under the 20 day moving average.
4. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the fx under the 142.000 support.
5. A sell signal would negate a buy signal triggered today. Normally when a market does so this quickly, it follows through in the new direction.
Sell September canadian. Sell 89.82 stop. Protective stop 91.21. Potential projection 86.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month.
2. On the monthly chart, the cd tried to rally over its major downtrend last month but failed.
3. On the monthly chart, a sell signal would push the cd under the 20 day moving average.
4. The weekly chart has a key reversal top.
5. The daily chart appears to be forming a 1,2,3 top formation.
6. The daily chart has a previous sell signal.
7. On the daily chart, the cd sold off under the 20 day moving average Monday. Attempts to rally over it have failed.
8. A sell signal would push the cd under the 90.00 support and further confirm the 1,2,3 top.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short November mini beans from 1019 ¾ down to 963 ¼.
Long October hogs from 47.90 up to 48.25.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: Last time it was trying to hold at the 20 day moving average. The inside day I pointed out triggered a sell yesterday and violated the moving average. So far, the sell signal stopped at the 275.00 support. Today it is right back over the moving average. I am beginning to sense that copper is forming a range between 275.00 up to 300.00 - roughly. Closed 286.50, up 3.90.
DEC MINI GOLD: Today it took out the high it made in June at 993.60. Today's high 999.50. On the daily chart, the contract high in Dec. gold is 1015. made in Feb. On the monthly chart, gold broke out of the longer term pennant today. This is encouraging for further follow through. It is up against resistance now and will need to get over that. If this mini wave can follow through, its projection is to 1031.90. The historic high on the monthly chart is 1033.90 made in 2008. If it can manage to get over 1000.00, it should try for that. If it can reach that price area, it will be at a critical point. Don't be surprised if you see a sell-off from that level since when markets reach an old high for the first time they usually do that. If it does, that sell-off could be to set up for another swing up to 1074.00 approximately. That is what projections suggest. Needless to say, gold is starting to enter new territory and it could be pretty volatile since you would not have any reference points. If it can reach that projection, how it will go about it is anybody's guess. Just watching. Closed 997.70, up 19.20.
DEC MINI SILVER: The current wave up in silver has projections to 16.940. Today's high 16.310. It is interesting to note that it will be pushing into heavy resistance at that level. With silver you are not dealing with "new trading territory" as you would gold. That will probably make it the easier one to trade. Closed 16.290, up .805.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
OCT MINI CRUDE OIL: On the daily it continues to appear "toppy." Longer term it has not even made a .382 retracement from the January low which would be at 80.00. Instead it continues to struggle at 70.00. In my last Update I thought the daily action suggested a continued sell-off to 65.00. Long term, it looks headed for 60.00. Just watching. Closed 67.96, down 9.
SEPT MINI JAPANESE YEN: I took profit on the long position last time. It continued to rally and almost reached the high (109.09) made in July. Today's high 108.77. It then formed a key reversal top. Long term the yen appears to be starting a new wave up with a potential to 123.00. Watching closely to buy. Closed 108.06, down 45.
SEPT SWISS FRANC: I attempted to buy it today. It reached my price during the night session. It then sold off. I placed the buy orders at my entry price but it never reached that again. It then formed a key reversal top. Watching closely. Closed 94.11, down 21.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: I have tried to buy it. The price has not been reached as its range has been very narrow. I'll try again tomorrow. Closed 78.520, up .085.
SEPT MINI EUROCURRENCY: I have tried to short it. The price has not been reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 142.500, down .220.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: I have been trying to short it. The price has not been reached. It attempted to rally today but didn't do much. I'll try to short it again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 90.60, up 18.
DEC BONDS: I took profit yesterday. They rallied to 121.110. Today was an inside day. Waiting to go long again. Closed 120.220, down .150.
Position: Long 120.050 (9.1). Exit 121.090 (9.2). Profit $1125.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
