MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, SEPT. 4, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades.  Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here.  To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website:  www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com.  If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email.  I look forward to hearing from you! 

ARE WE THERE YET?  By that I mean are we finally going to see some trends develop.  Several markets are suggesting that more and more.  The grains have finally had some follow through.  The metals too - which is even more important.  Why?  The fact that gold finally broke out of the pennant and is starting to follow through, could finally trigger follow through in some other markets - particularly in financially related ones such as the currencies.  They have been stuck in ranges in most instances for longer than I care to remember. The gold rally could trigger a clearing of congestion in several markets because a "statement" is possibly finally being made.  A possible analogy would be a herd of sheep at a rivers edge.  They mull around there going nowhere.  Finally one braves the water, and jumps in to swim to the other side.  Soon the rest follow.  I am not saying all markets will rally.  Many should go in the direction they have been suggesting for some time but could not quite do it.  It should be interesting and hopefully this will offer some good opportunities for a change.  We'll see!

PLEASE NOTE:  The Holiday Schedule is as follows:  On Friday all pits will close the regular time.  Globex currencies, int. rates, financials, metals & energies  close at 3:15 versus the normal 4:00. 
On Monday only some globex markets will open.  They are:  financials, interest rates, currencies, ice dollar but will close at 12:00.  Metals & energies will close at 12:15.  I will not be in the office on Monday.

ABOUT TRADING:  Trading is not easy.  Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be.   That is why a trading plan is so important.  It forces discipline and a removal from emotion.   In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need:  Entry, Exit, Projection.  If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble.   I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.

The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday.  Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days.  To sign up for both register on my website:   http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit.  You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.

ESTABLISHING A TRADING ACCOUNT:  I offer brokerage services and personal assistance for every level of trader.  You will work with me directly.  Feel free to call or email me at any time without obligation.  I welcome hearing from you!

TRADE ALERTS:

Buy October cattle.  87.35 stop.  Protective stop 85.65.  Potential projection 90.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly formed a key reversal bottom in June at the major 80.00 support level.
2.  On the monthly chart, they triggered a buy in July. 
3.  On the monthly chart, they are now over the 85.00 resistance.  That is now support.
4.  On the weekly chart, they rallied over their major downtrend formed since the 2008 high in mid July - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
5.  On the weekly chart, they have tested and held at the 20 day moving average since mid August.
6.  The daily chart formed a key reversal bottom yesterday.
7.  They triggered a buy on the daily chart today.

Sell December coffee.  Sell 119.70 stop.  Protective stop 122.45.  Potential projection 110.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and weekly charts have formed key reversal tops.
2.  Both the monthly and weekly charts are under the 20 day moving averages.
3.  The weekly chart has a sell signal.
4.  The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5.  A sell signal would push coffee under the 120.00 support.
6.  Coffee triggered a sell on the daily chart yesterday.

CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short November mini beans from 1019 ¾ down to 963 ¼.
Long October hogs from 47.90 up to 48.25.

GRAIN COMMENTS: 

DEC CORN:  It continues to hold at the long term support (300) that I have pointed out several times before.  Other than that, there isn't much new in this market.  If it can't hold this support, the next potential support is around 275.  Just watching.  Closed 315 ¾, down 3 ½.

DEC WHEAT:  Long term it does not look too good.  It has been holding in support formed in late 2006 and early 2007.  My concern is the sell signal on the monthly chart plus it has not been able to get back over 500 major support on the monthly.  That is important.  Also the consolidation it has on the monthly between 500 up to approximately 650 is much more extensive than the consolidation it is in now right under that level.  My point being the consolidation above the market could easily push through the support it is now in.  If it does, the next good support is at 400.  That is a different story.  That support extends back several years and even though the market might push into it a little, going through that would be a surprise.  Closed 478 ¾, down 7.

NOV MINI BEANS:  The sell signal they triggered on the monthly, continues to follow through.  The next support is at 900. On the daily chart, they also have a lot of consolidation at that level.  Move stops from 1019 ¾ down to 963 ¼.  Closed 941 ½, down 9 ½.
Position:  Short 965 (9.1).
Projection:  900

DEC MEAL:  Last time I pointed out that it had violated the 300.00 support.  It has pretty much been straight down since.  In my last report, meal had triggered a sell that day when meal sold off under 293.50.  Today's low 283.30.  Just watching.  Closed 286.70, down 5.80.

DEC BEAN OIL:  The next support in Dec. oil is 34.00 but the major support is down at 33.00.  It triggered a sell on August 26 when it sold off under 37.06.  Today's low 34.25.  Closed 34.65, down 5.

MEAT COMMENTS:

OCT HOGS:  We are getting follow through with this market.  It struggled to get over 48.75 but finally did so on Wednesday.  Even then it wavered on Wednesday but finally took off today.  Today's high 51.15.  Move stops from 46.80 up to 48.25.  That is right below yesterday's inside day.  Today's rally triggered another buy in hogs.  Closed 49.77, up 95.
Position:  Long 49.25 (8.28).
Projection:  52.50.

OCT CATTLE:  They wear me out.  I was chatting with another broker in our office today about them and cattle are tough to position in. As pointed out last time, since Feb. they really haven't done much.  But is that the truth?  Markets consolidate for one reason - to set up for a move.  In that respect, cattle have been doing a lot. They are now near the bottom end of that range.  Sure enough, they formed a key reversal bottom yesterday and an outside day.  That triggered a buy today.  So what are they setting up to do?  Longer term, their "lure" is that they sure look like they are setting up for one good rally.  The reality with this market is that since 1996 (when they made a major low), they have been in a huge uptrend.  They have had four huge waves up.  The sell-off since the Aug. 08 high appears to be the correction to the fourth wave up.  Since then they have been consolidating.  They formed a key reversal bottom in June on the monthly and a buy signal in July.  If they are starting a fifth wave up, its projections on the monthly is to 112.00 approximately.  Their one hurtle is the 90.00 resistance.  The 20 day moving average intersects there too.  Based on the consolidation that has been going on since late 2008, they should be able to go right through that.  Of course, the next question is back to square one: how do you position in them?  I will try to buy them again.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 86.72, down .50.

SOFTS COMMENTS:

DEC COTTON:  It is making a good effort to hold 55.00 long term (basis the Oct. contract). That is good support.  Cotton held it last month and is doing so again, so far, this month. On the weekly it is attempting to get over the 20 day moving average.  It had violated it last week and closed under it.  The daily triggered a buy today so there are positives developing.  Just watching.  Closed

NOV ORANGE JUICE: Last time I pointed out the oj was acting the same way it did when it was trying to get back over the 100 support on the daily chart.  It "hovered" just below it for about a week, made one attempt at a rally and then sold off to the next support at 95.00.  It has been doing the same thing right under the 95.00 support and began to sell off today.  Last time I did not see enough there to be interested.  I still feel the same.  Closed 91.90, down 2.10.

DEC COFFEE:   I attempted to sell it.  The price has not been reached even though it triggered a sell signal yesterday.  It continued to hold the 120.00 support today but did not do anything.  I will try to sell it again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 120.80, down 35.

DEC COCOA:  I attempted to sell it.  It rallied instead and made a high today at 29.74.  It is back in the range that it started to form in late July and is near the high end of it.  It broke out of that range to the downside in mid August but it was a fake breakout.  The test now will be to see if it can break out to the upside and follow through.  Closed 29.33, down 6.

OCT SUGAR:  The key reversal top it had made and I pointed out in my last Update has followed through. The market has sold off since.  What is interesting is that it stopped today right on the pennant formation.  Is this a test of that breakout?  You don't know.  Just watching.  Closed 23.14, down 54.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.