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EHedger Grains Market Commentary 9/02/09


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SETTLEMENTS 9/02

Grain Settlement - 9/02

 

Corn, soybeans and wheat all had a fairly quiet day.  The market did not see the strong selling it has seen the last two sessions. However, the buying interest still remained soft. After last weekend's failed frost the market quickly took some of the risk premium out of the market.  At this point the forecast does not see any major chances for frost during the next two weeks.  If we can continue to get favorable weather for a bit longer the market should continue to take risk premium out of the price. We realize it is natural to want to wait until you are positive there will not be a frost before you price any more grain. However, the problem is that if you wait until you "know" that you are going to have a good crop before you sell, it will likely be too late.  I understand that there is still time to hurt the crop, but that time is quickly eroding away.  I just feel like most farmers are going to be "heading for the doors" at the same time this fall.  If you are unsold and still convinced that the market is going higher, at least look at getting some downside protection.  This is a good article that I found that talks about soybean yields with cool and wet August weather. http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/blog/?p=568 This goes along with what I was talking about on Monday.  If we are both right, soybeans have a lot of downside potential this fall.

 

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Justin Kelly grew up working on his family's farm in western Illinois, and has been intimately involved in the agricultural industry his entire life. After graduating from Purdue University with a BS degree in Agribusiness Management, Justin was a CBOT member and corn pit broker for Iowa Grain Co. In 2006 Justin went on to lead Iowa Grain's research department. Today as President and Principle of EHedger, Justin applies his hands on experience of both farming and futures trading to helping producers and merchandisers implement solid risk management strategies tailored to their specific requirements.

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