MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., SEPT. 2, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades.  Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here.  To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website:  www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com.  If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email.  I look forward to hearing from you! 

ABOUT TRADING:  Trading is not easy.  Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be.   That is why a trading plan is so important.  It forces discipline and a removal from emotion.   In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need:  Entry, Exit, Projection.  If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble.   I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.

The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday.  Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days.  To sign up for both register on my website:   http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit.  You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.

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TRADE ALERTS:

Sell December coffee.  Sell 119.70 stop.  Protective stop 123.55.  Potential projection 110.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and weekly charts have formed key reversal tops.
2.  Both the monthly and weekly charts are under the 20 day moving averages.
3.  The weekly chart has a sell signal.
4.  The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5.  A sell signal would push coffee under the 120.00 support.
6.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell December cocoa.  Sell 27.63 stop.  Protective stop 28.62.  Potential projection 26.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and weekly charts have formed key reversal tops.
2.  Both long term charts rallied to the 30.00 resistance and have been selling off.  The last time cocoa attempted to get over that level in 2008 it sold off under 20.00.
3.  On the daily chart, cocoa sold off under the 20 day moving average last Thursday and continues to trade under it.  That is negative.
4.  The daily chart has two previous sell signals that are still intact.  

GRAIN COMMENTS: 

DEC CORN:  It simply cannot get over the 20 day moving average.  This has been going on since early August.  Yet it holds major long term support very well.  I continue to see this market consolidating for a move.  Unless something dramatic happens and based on past behavior near the 300 support level long term, I see it setting up for a major rally.  Watching closely.  Closed 319 ¼, down 10 ½.

DEC WHEAT:  Long term it does not look as good as corn.  I would really like to see it get back over 500. Yet long term it continues to hold in support going back to 2006 - as I have mentioned before. Just watching.  Closed 487 ¼, down 11 ½.

NOV MINI BEANS:  I shorted them today.  On the weekly chart, they violated the uptrend formed since the December low this week.  Not a good sign.  Also, as of today, they have triggered a sell signal on the monthly chart.  These are new negatives to suggest further sell-off.  Keep stops at 1019 ¾.  Closed 955 ½, down 24.
Position:  Short 965 (9.1).
Projection:  900.

DEC MEAL:  Long term meal had good support at 300.  It has now violated that support.  On the weekly it also violated an uptrend formed since the low last December as of this week.  The daily chart triggered a sell today.  This sell-off could go to 925.00.  Closed 288.70, down 8.80.

DEC BEAN OIL:  Since my last report it has continued to trade under the 20 day moving average and made a new low today at 34.97.  Long term the sell signal on the monthly continues to follow through.  Bean oil not only filled the gap on the weekly it has gone beyond it.   Closed 35.10, down 50.

MEAT COMMENTS:

OCT HOGS:  They triggered a buy on Friday and started to sell off.  They have finally started to rally today with a high at 49.80.  Keep stops at 46.80 for now.  Closed 49.50, up 1.35.
Position:  Long 49.25 (8.28).
Projection:  52.50.

OCT CATTLE:  The key reversal bottom that they formed and I mentioned in my last Update, did not hold.  They collapsed further the next day to 86.60.  The low as of yesterday was 85.92.  It is hard to believe, but this market is right back in that huge range I have mentioned so many times.  This has been going on for about half a year.  After attempting to break out in July, it is now back at the low end of the range.  Just watching.  Closed 86.10, down 57.

SOFTS COMMENTS:

DEC COTTON:  Stops were reached yesterday.  Today it then sold off beyond my original entry point with a low at 57.52. Long term it continues to suggest more sell-off.  The monthly chart is only about 60 points away from triggering a sell. Just watching.  Closed 58.35, down 1.39.
Position:  Sort 57.82 (8.26).  Exit 58.99 (8.31).  Loss $585.

NOV ORANGE JUICE:  It is trying to hold in the same area that held the market in early August.  It tried to rally today and made it to 97.00.  The problem is that it needs to close over 95.00 on the daily chart.  That is hasn't done for several days.  Long term it continues to suggest that it is making a bottom.  My concern is that it is forming the same type of action right under the 95.00 support that it did at the 100.00 support.  It attempted for several days to get back over 100.00.  It eventually could not do it and sold off to where it is now.  I just don't see enough there yet to be interested.  Closed 94.35, unchanged.

DEC COFFEE:  It is at the moment of truth, so to speak. It is right on the near term and long term support at 120.00.  If it cannot hold here, it most likely will try for 110.00.  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 102.05, down 225.

DEC COCOA:  I have tried to sell it.  The price has not been reached.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 28.39, up 45.

OCT SUGAR:  It formed a key reversal top today.  This is the second time within a month that the market has started to show signs of trying to top.  As a market matures it will start to send out red flags.  It did so in August with the double top and sell signals.  It couldn't follow through then.  Today's formation could be the start of another attempt.  Will it succeed?  You don't know.  Some do so the first time around.  Others take several attempts.  Just watching.  Closed 24.24, down 15. 

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.