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Equity Rally Weighs on Dollar.


Dollar Index (DXU9):

The Dollar opened higher at 78.94 and rose to a morning HI of 79.15 as an increase in Weekly Jobless Claims of 30K sent equities lower as traders awaited the Existing Home Sales. The greater than expected report, along with better news from AT&T increased 'risk-appetite' as traders rotated away from safe-haven assets and into equities, sending the Dollar to a mid-day Lo of 78.585, before bouncing into the afternoon session and ending the day-session at 78.97, up 11 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Traders will look to the equity market for direction. Continued increase in risk-appetite should weigh on the DX, while profit-taking in equities could trigger a short-covering move and higher prices. Shorts should tighten 'stops' or buy 'calls' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 79.21 and 79.46, while an open below 78.90 may find Support at 78.65 and 78.33. 

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

The CD opened higher at .9125 and slid to our Pivot level of .9083, before following equity markets higher. A bullish report from the BoC stating their belief that the country's recession is ending helped prices to a morning Hi of .9227. Higher oil/metals prices supported the move into the afternoon session, before drifting lower into the close of .9215, up 110 tics. Higher equity/commodity prices could see prices reach for the Target Hi of 6/1 at .9275. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at .9268 and .9320, while an open below .9175 may find Support at .9123 and .9030.  

Japanese Yen (JYU9):

The JY opened lower at our secondary Support level of 1.0600 as equity prices rose after a better than expected report on exports, reflecting the +1.1% increase of sales to China. As equity prices rose, the JY retraced to a mid-day Lo of 1.0497, before bouncing to a close of 1.0515, down 176 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. Shorts will notice the close at the 50% Fib Retr level and look to tighten 'stops' or buy 'calls' should equity markets retrace. A lower open may find Support at 1.0443 and 1.0370, while an open above 1.0569 should find Resistance at 1.0642 and 1.0768. 

 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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