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Dollar 'Slides' As Risk-Appetite Increases.


Dollar Index (DXU9):

The DX opened lower at 79.60 as equity markets moved higher after Intel Corp. posted better than expected earnings, increasing the risk-appetite of traders as they rotate out of safe-haven assets. Prices slid to a daily Lo of 79.42, before ending the day-session at 79.46, down 91 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. Traders will key on the equity markets to see if the buying continues over-seas, which should weigh on the DX and possibly test the Target Lo of 78.83 on 6/2. A lower open may find Support at 79.19 and 78.93, while an open above 79.69 should find Resistance at 79.95 and 80.45. 

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

The CD opened higher at .8902 against the weaker DX and higher commodity prices. Optimism that the global recession may have made a positive turn sent equtiy markets higher, along with oil prices. The CD moved higher through the afternoon, hitting a day-session Hi of .8999, before closing at .8994, up 149 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/firm momentum indicators. Higher equity prices would benefit the CD, however, any profit-taking in the equity markets, especially at the .8988 61.8% Fib level could weigh on prices. A higher open should find Resistance at .9057 and .9121, while an open below .8936 may find Support at .8872 and .8751.

Euro-Currency (ECU9):

The EC opened higher at 1.4085 and followed equity markets higher throughout the session, as traders took on more risk, sending the safe-haven assets, Treasuries and DX lower throughout the day. Prices rose to a daily Hi of 1.4137, before closing at 1.4130, up 195 tics. The close above the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/improving momentum indicators. Higher equity prices 'over-seas' could see the EC challenge the Target Hi of 1.4202 on 7/1. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4190 and 1.4250, while an open below 1.4077 may find Support at 1.4017 and 1.3904.

 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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