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Yen 'Soars' As Carry-Traders Cover, Hit 'Stops'.


Japanese Yen (JYU9):

The Yen opened higher at our secondary Resistance level of 1.0618 as risk-averse carry traders covered short Yen positions as the Nikkei 225 slid 227 points. A weaker than expected report showing Machine Orders fell 3% as Q2 earnings reports begin, was enough for carry-traders to reduce exposure in global equity markets and send prices higher. A number of buy-stops were hit, at the previous Target Hi of 1.0664 level, driving prices to a daily Hi of 1.0904, before drifting lower into the close of 1.0828, up 267 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive', w/firm momentum indicators. Traders should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.0972 and 1.1115, while an open below 1.0760 may find Support at 1.0617 and 1.0405.

Dollar Index (DXU9):

The DX opened higher at 80.92 and slid to a morning Lo at our Pivot level of 80.77. As equity markets retraced, safe-haven buying sent the Dollar higher into the afternoon session, posting an intra-day Hi of 8012, before drifting to a close of 81.005, up 14 tics. Pressure expected from the G-8 meeting did not materialize, as many member nations supported a higher Dollar to reduce pressure on their own currency and help exports. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will key on direction of equity markets and Q2 earnings reports, as the Dollar will continue to attract safe-haven buying. A higher open should find Resistance at 81.16  and 81.31, while an open below 80.965 may find Support at 80.81 and 80.61.

Euro Currency (ECU9):

The Euro opened higher at 1.3902 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.3932 as equity prices rose, following a better than expected reports on German Industrial Production and French Business Sentiment. Prices retraced, following equity prices to a mid-day Lo of 1.3832, before bouncing into the close of 1.3850, down 77 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at 1.3809 and 1.3767, while an open above 1.3873 should find Resistance at 1.3915 and 1.3979.


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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