MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR MONDAY, JULY 6, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade. Additional trades for alternate days are published (Trade Alerts) but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up at my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email me. I look forward to hearing from you!

PLEASE NOTE:  All markets will be closed tomorrow except the Globex energies and currencies.  They will be closing around noon.  My recommendations below for the currencies are for Monday - not tomorrow because the activity tomorrow will not reflect a true market, in my opinion, since they are the only ones open and have a shorten trading period.  I would rather wait until Monday.  If I need to make adjustments on the entries, etc. for Monday due to tomorrow's trading, I will notify you via a Trade Alert on Sunday evening.

CURRENCY COMMENT: I sense the currencies are setting up for some big moves.  They have been consolidating for quite some time and a market never continues to do that forever.  The longer the consolidation, the bigger the move. 

ABOUT TRADING:

Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. Trading is not easy.  It takes discipline, a plan and the ability to leave your emotions in the other room.  My Market Update is designed to help you with that.

You need a plan because, you cannot control the market but you can control yourself.   As a client so aptly put it, "when trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble.  The only way to do that is to develop/utilize a system to help you trade the markets."   Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money. 

Developing a system to approach the markets takes time.  The purpose of my Market Update is to show you some of the technical indicators you should consider prior to entering a trade and to show you the trading components all systems need:  Entry, Exit, Projection.   My goal is to help you save time and trade better.    

Sign up for my complete Update including Trade Alerts on alternate days by going to my website:  http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/.  It's free as well as several booklets on trading. 

OPENING AN ACCOUNT:

Feel free to call or email me regarding any questions you may have about the markets or about trading with me.  I'm available during market hours without obligation.   I welcome the opportunity to hear from you and what your experience has been.  I can also tell you a little about myself and the firm I work with to see if that would work for you!

SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:

I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.  I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.

TRADE ALERT:

Sell August mini gold.  Sell 925.50 stop.  Protective stop 942.50.  Potential projection 880.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly formed a key reversal top last month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2.  The weekly chart formed a key reversal top several weeks ago.
3.  On the weekly chart, gold is back under the 20 day moving average.  That is negative.
4.  On the daily chart, rallies continue to be stopped by the 20 day moving average. 
5.  On the daily chart, rallies continue to be contained by the 940 resistance. 
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction. 

Sell September mini silver.  Sell 13.250 stop. Protective stop 13.890.  Potential projection 12.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month.
2.  On the monthly chart, silver is back under the 20 day moving average.
3.  The weekly chart formed a key reversal top several weeks ago. 
4.  On the weekly chart, silver sold off under the 20 day moving average this week.
5.  On the weekly chart, attempts to rally over the 14.000 resistance area failed the last two weeks.
6.  The daily chart has a major key reversal top.
7.  On the daily chart, silver triggered a sell today from an inside day yesterday.

Buy September mini yen.  Buy 104.750 stop.  Protective stop 103.150.  Potential projection 108.00.
1.  On the monthly chart, the yen formed a key reversal bottom in April suggesting a trend change from down to up.
2.  The weekly chart has a buy signal that is still intact.
3.  On the weekly chart, the yen rallied over the 20 day moving average two weeks ago and has held it on sell-offs.  That is positive.
4.  On the weekly chart, the yen is trading into a pennant suggesting that the market is setting up for a major move.
5.  The daily chart has been in an uptrend since the April low.  It appears to be in the process of a third wave up.
6.  On the daily chart both yesterday and today's sell-off held the 20 day moving average.

Buy September dollar index. Buy 80.750 stop. Protective stop 79.720. Potential projection 83.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly formed a key reversal bottom last month. Technically that suggests a trend change from down to up.
2. On the monthly chart, the dollar continues to hold at the 20 day moving average for the last three months.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom several weeks ago that is still intact.
4. On the daily chart, a buy signal would push the dollar back over the 20 day moving average.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

Sell September mini eurocurrency.  Sell 139.700 stop.  Protective stop 141.550.  Potential projection 136.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2.  On the monthly chart rallies have been contained by the 20 day moving average.  It continues to trade under it.  That is negative.
3.  The weekly chart has a key reversal top.
4.  The daily chart has a key reversal top.
5.  On the daily chart, the fx rallied up to the 142.000 resistance area yesterday and has been selling off.
6.  A sell signal would push the fx under the 20 day moving average.  That would be negative.

METALS COMMENTS:

SEPT COPPER:  Last time I mentioned that the daily chart looked as though it was setting up for a sell-off.  So far that has not happened.  What has happened is nothing.  It has been going sideways since Tuesday.  We all know when a market does that, it is setting up for a move.  Which way remains to be seen.  Closed 230.55, down 2.50.

AUG MINI GOLD:  Stops were reached yesterday when it rallied to 947.00.  Today was an inside day.  I will try to sell it for Monday.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 931.00, down 10.30.
Position:  Short 929.50 (6.30).  Exit 943.80 (7.1).  Loss $474.76.

SEPT MINI SILVER: Switching to Sept.  First I'll finish up with the July trade.  I lowered the stop yesterday to protect what small profit it had considering the market behavior recently.  Stops were reached with a small profit.  I will try to short the September on Monday.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 13.408, down .352.
Position:  Short 13.820 (6.29).  Exit 13.813 (7.1).  Profit $88.

ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:

AUG CRUDE OIL:  Last time I mentioned that the possibility of a sell-off was increasing.  It has been selling off since and today's low is 66.26.  Projections for this wave down are to 66.00.  Closed 66.73, down 2.58.

SEPT SWISS FRANC:  Just looking at the daily chart, this market appears to be building a huge top.  It has been violatile which is also a sign of a market top.  It formed an inside day today but I think there are safer currencies to trade.  Closed 92.48, down 67.

SEPT JAPANESE YEN:  My recent attempts to buy have not materialized.  I'll try again Monday.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 104.47, up 80.

SEPT DOLLAR INDEX:  I keep trying to buy it. The price is not reached.  I'll try again for Monday.  Closed 80.37, up 50.

SEPT EUROCURRENCY:   I tried to sell it yesterday.  It rallied instead.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 140.25, down 122.

SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Last time I mentioned that a near term rally may be an opportunity to sell.  It rallied yesterday but did not get far.  Today it sold off and formed an inside day.  If it takes out 85.76, I suspect it will sell off to 84.00 near term.  Just watching.  Closed 86.14, down 95.

SEPT BONDS:  Last time I mentioned the resistance at 118.200 and that they should sell off.  They did but not by much.  Today they rallied over that resistance and made a high at 119.095.  Closed 118.300, up .225.

SEPT T-NOTES:  A new high for them today at 117.020.  They had sold off to the 115.200 support yesterday and held.  Waiting for a good setback to buy.  Just watching.  Closed 116.270, up .185.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.