MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR MONDAY, JULY 6, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade. Additional trades for alternate days are published (Trade Alerts) but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up at my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email me. I look forward to hearing from you!
PLEASE NOTE: All markets will be closed tomorrow except the Globex energies and currencies. They will be closing around noon. My recommendations below for the currencies are for Monday - not tomorrow because the activity tomorrow will not reflect a true market, in my opinion, since they are the only ones open and have a shorten trading period. I would rather wait until Monday. If I need to make adjustments on the entries, etc. for Monday due to tomorrow's trading, I will notify you via a Trade Alert on Sunday evening.
ABOUT TRADING:
Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. Trading is not easy. It takes discipline, a plan and the ability to leave your emotions in the other room. My Market Update is designed to help you with that.
You need a plan because, you cannot control the market but you can control yourself. As a client so aptly put it, "when trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble. The only way to do that is to develop/utilize a system to help you trade the markets." Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money.
Developing a system to approach the markets takes time. The purpose of my Market Update is to show you some of the technical indicators you should consider prior to entering a trade and to show you the trading components all systems need: Entry, Exit, Projection. My goal is to help you save time and trade better.
Sign up for my complete Update including Trade Alerts on alternate days by going to my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/. It's free as well as several booklets on trading.
OPENING AN ACCOUNT:
Feel free to call or email me regarding any questions you may have about the markets or about trading with me. I'm available during market hours without obligation.
I welcome the opportunity to hear from you and what your experience has been. I can also tell you a little about myself and the firm I work with to see if that would work for you!
SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:
I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage. I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.
TRADE ALERT: None for Monday.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
SEPT CORN: I had mentioned earlier how corn behaved this June just like it did last year in June. It had a huge sell-off. It took out the low of June but not by a lot - approx. 15 cents. It then consolidated for two months before starting the bull move that topped in 2008. The one major difference between this year and last year, is that in 2007 corn was coming from much lower prices to begin with. This year corn is coming from much higher prices. Irrespective, the monthly is technically positive and giving indications that a bottom was made some time ago. Time will tell but in the meantime this sell-off should end up to be a buying opportunity. Closed 345 3/4, down 10 3/4.
SEPT WHEAT: I tried to buy it today. It triggered a sell instead. It continues to hold the low made on Tuesday and the low made last December. If it takes out last December's low, it most likely will head for 500 which is strong support. Either way, this sell-off should set up for a buying opportunity. Closed 529, down 6 1/2.
AUG BEANS: They have rallied and appear to be trying for contract high (1205). So far that is not working out. After a high today of 1171, they sold off to form a key reversal top. That is not good. The monthly chart still suggests that trouble is setting up. A huge key reversal top in June is not too encouraging for a major rally at this level. The only positive chart is the weekly that formed a key reversal bottom this week. I still contend that the beans are due for a huge correction. Closed 1154, down 6 1/2.
SEPT MEAL: Stops were reached yesterday. It then rallied to 355.60 and stopped. It sold off today. Its long term charts are a repeat of the bean chart. I still smell trouble here. It formed an inside day today but the risk is too much to suggest a sell. Closed 348.80, down .40.
Position: Short 335.10 (6.29). Exit 342.50 (7.1). Loss $740.
AUG BEAN OIL: I see more sell-off for this market. One reason is that the sell-off on Tues. stopped in the middle of a gap before it rallied yesterday. It sold off again today and formed an outside day. I would like to suggest a sell but it is on long term support at 35.00. I think it will eventually go through it, but it could just as easily have a rally from this level first. Just watching. Closed 35.34, down .68.
MEAT COMMENTS:
AUG HOGS: I took profit this morning considering the problem with markets not following through of late. They have rallied since and have a high at 61.42. Just watching for now. Closed 61.15, up .45.
Position: Long 59.50 (6.30). Exit 61.05 (7.2). Profit $620.
AUG CATTLE: Since my last report they have been hanging around the high end of their range mentioned in earlier reports. They are most likely trying to think of a new way to confuse traders. They really don't have to work at it since their trading behavior has been difficult to deal with to say the least. They have started to sell off and possibly they may test the 84.00 support. If they can hold there this time, maybe that will be enough to start a continued rally that will break them out of their consolidation to higher numbers. Just watching. Closed 84.87, down 87.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: Last time I suggested that the current rally could be setting up for a third wave down. I had no idea the rally would become as extreme as it has. Today's high 61.29. Technically it has not violated the high (62.63) of the previous rally so it is still in a downtrend. It will be interesting to see if cotton starts to sell off next week. Closed 60.92, up 44.
SEPT ORANGE JUICE: In my last Update I pointed out that OJ had resistance at 80.00. It rallied to 80.40 yesterday. Today it sold off but not a lot. This is the first noticeable rally that OJ has had since it topped out at the end of May. Considering that, I still suspect we may be looking at the start to attempt to form a bottom. Just watching. Closed 79.65, down .30.
SEPT COFFEE: I attempted to buy it yesterday. It triggered a sell instead. It started to follow through today with a low at 117.05. If you noticed, the sell-offs are not as aggressive as they used to be. Part of the reason is that coffee is now pushing into long term support. Secondly, it has sold off from 145.00 down to the current 117.05 without a recognizable rally. In short, I think coffee is becoming over sold. Watching closely to buy. Closed 118.00, down 1.05.
SEPT COCOA: An inside day yesterday triggered a sell today. I have been standing aside since the longer term charts are a bit flakey. I see nothing to do here. Closed 24.90, down 14.
OCT SUGAR: It triggered a sell today and sold off to 17.40. I hope this trade doesn't end up like the last one. It took forever for it to sell off. We'll see. Keep stops at 18.11. Closed 17.58, down 17.
Position: Short 17.55 (7.2).
Projection: 16.50.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
