MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., JULY 1, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
GENERAL COMMENT: Many markets technically look confused or seem in a struggle for lack of a better description. Or possibly they are in a transition phase. It is too early to tell. These phases can get choppy so one needs to be aware of that.
On another note, I have been finding discrepancies in my quoting system recently to the extent that I have had to change stops in a couple of instances. I contacted the quoting/charting company regarding this and they were going to look into it.
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Buy September dollar index. Buy 80.750 stop. Protective stop 79.650. Potential projection 83.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal bottom this month suggesting a trend change from down to up.
2. On the monthly and weekly chart, the dollar is back over the 80.000 major support level.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom four weeks ago.
4. On the weekly chart, the current wave down has exceeded projections suggesting an oversold market.
5. On the daily chart, sell-offs continue to hold at the 80.000 support.
6. A buy signal would put the dollar back over the 20 day moving average.
7. The daily chart formed a key reversal bottom today.
8. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell September mini Eurocurrency. Sell 139.690 stop. Protective stop 141.520. Potential projection 136.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top this month.
2. On the monthly chart, the fx violated its major uptrend since the 2002 low last year and attempts to rally back over it since have failed to date.
3. The weekly formed a second key reversal top this week.
4. On the daily chart, the contract high is a key reversal top. It formed another key reversal top today.
5. A sell signal would push the fx under the 20 day moving average.
6. The daily chart is in a near term downtrend. The rally that peaked today could be the set up for a third wave down.
METALS COMMENTS:
SEPT COPPER: Longer term this market is giving very positive indications. On the daily chart things do not look so good. It looks primed for a sell-off. Since the contract high on June 11, it has had one wave down. The recent rally appears to be a set up for a potential second wave down. It closed under the 20 day moving average today - not a good sign. It also formed a key reversal top to the recent rally. And today was an outside day. Yet it has some pretty decent support at 220.00. Just watching. Closed 227.20, down 5.40.
AUG MINI GOLD: It rallied early but was stopped by the 20 day moving average and its downtrend line. It then triggered a sell today and sold off to 922.70. Keep stops at 943.70 and let the market work. Closed 927.40, down 13.30.
Position: Short 929.50 (6.30).
Projection: 880.
JUL MINI SILVER: It finally triggered a sell yesterday. This is another market that has had discrepancies with highs and lows. Yesterday the stops were placed at 14.320 - not the 14.060 shown. Today's low 13.435. Keep stops at 14.320. Closed 13.574, down .373.
Position: Short 13.820 (6.29).
Projection: 13.000.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
AUG MINI CRUDE OIL: Today's action formed a key reversal top when it attempted and failed at testing the contract high at 73.90. In spite of the reversal top, it did close above the 20 day moving average. In an earlier report it appeared as though crude had sold off under a support area formed by consolidation. I thought the rally initially was to test that breakout to the downside. Obviously it has turned into more than that since it is back up in that support. Longer term it is definitely trying to hold above 70.00 and that is positive. Bottom line it has been hanging around the 70.00 level on the daily chart for some time and at this point, I think the possibility of a sell-off is increasing. Just watching. Closed 69.89, down 160.
SEPT MINI JAPANESE YEN: I have attempted to buy the yen. The price has not been reached. It sold off to the 20 day moving average again today. Just watching. Closed 103.88, down 37.
SEPT SWISS FRANC: It triggered a buy today from yesterday's inside day but has not had good follow through. It is now under the buy price and also back under the 20 day moving average. That indicator has been a problem for the swiss. Long term there is conflict in this market. The monthly has a buy signal but also formed a key reversal top this month. The weekly has a key reversal top from earlier but also a buy signal. When in conflict, stay away. Closed 92.20, down 33.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: I continue to try to buy it. It sold off under 80.000 today but immediately turned around and started to rally. It persists in holding 80.000. It is obviously building up for a move. This is starting to sound like a broken record but I will try to buy it again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 80.50, up 38.
SEPT MINI EUROCURRENCY: I attempted to sell it earlier. It rallied instead but without follow through. It stopped at previous resistance. It sold off today but is holding at the 20 day moving average. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 140.400, down 41.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: This is the second time it is testing the 86.00 support on the daily chart within four trading days. This is minor support. It has much better support down at 85.00. The longer term charts suggest more sell-off and have both formed key reversal tops. If the CD can set up a near term rally, it could be an opportunity to eventually sell. Closed 86.10, down 40.
SEPT 10 YR. NOTES: I had projections for them to 116.000 and they exceeded it with a high yesterday at 116.230. Longer term they do not look as constructive as the bonds. On the daily chart they appear to have completed a second wave up. Possibly a sell-off could set up a buying opportunity. Closed 1116.085, down .060.
SEPT BONDS: My earlier projection up to 118.240 was finally met and exceeded yesterday with a high at 119.045. I had also mentioned last time that long term they appear to be possibly forming a bottom. The monthly chart formed a key reversal bottom this month. Either way, on all the charts they are in resistance now and should sell off. The key is if they can hold the contract lows and start forming a bottom. Too early to tell. Closed 118.115, down .065.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary
