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USDA Report


   Grain Stocks:         

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1 percent from March 1, 2008.  Of the total stocks, 4.09 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 8 percent from a year earlier.  Off-farm stocks, at 2.87 billion bushels, are down 7 percent from a year ago.  The December 2008 - February 2009 indicated disappearance is 3.12 billion bushels, compared with 3.42 billion bushels during the same period last year.                                                                         

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9 percent from March 1, 2008.  Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 657 million bushels, up 11 percent from a year ago.  Off-farm stocks, at 645 million bushels, are down 23 percent from last March. 

Indicated disappearance for the December 2008 - February 2009 quarter totaled 974 million bushels, up 5 percent from the same period a year earlier.                                                                            

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46 percent from a year ago.  On-farm stocks are estimated at 280 million bushels, up 205 percent from last March.  Off-farm stocks, at 756 million bushels, are up 23 percent from a year ago.  The December 2008 - February 2009 indicated disappearance is 386 million bushels, down 9 percent from the same period a year earlier.                                                                               

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 32.8 million bushels, up 30 percent from a year ago.  On-farm stocks, at 18.7 million bushels, are up 131 percent from March 1, 2008.  Off-farm stocks totaled 14.1 million bushels, down 17 percent from a year ago.  The December 2008 - February 2009 indicated disappearance of 11.7 million bushels is down 20 percent from the same period a year earlier.

 Acreage:                                                                             

Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 87.3 million acres, down 7 percent from last year.  Despite the decrease, corn planted acreage is the second highest since 1946, behind last year's total of 93.6 million acres.  Growers expect to harvest 78.9 million acres for grain, down 9 percent from 2007.  If realized, this would be the second highest since 1944, behind last year.  Farmers increased corn plantings 1.31 million acres from their March intentions.  Planting got off to a slow start across the Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and the northern half of the Great Plains as frequent precipitation and cool temperatures during March and April prevented spring planting preparations.  Corn planting was 27 percent complete on May 4, down 32 points from normal.  Despite intermittent showers and below normal temperatures, producers were able to make rapid progress during May, particularly across the upper Midwest and northern Great Plains.  Farmers reported that 97 percent of the intended corn acreage had been planted at the time of the survey interview compared with the average of 98 percent for the past 10 years.                                                                               

Soybean planted area for 2008 is estimated at 74.5 million acres, up 17 percent from last year but 1 percent below the record high acreage in 2006.  Area for harvest, at 72.1 million acres, is up 15 percent from 2007.  Compared with last year, planted acreage increases are expected in all States, and the U.S. planted area for soybeans is the third largest on record.  The largest increase is expected in Nebraska, up 950,000 acres from 2007, followed by Illinois and South Dakota, both up 900,000 acres.  Increases of at least 800,000 acres are also expected in Indiana, Iowa, and Minnesota.  If realized, the planted acreage in Kansas, New York, and Pennsylvania will be the largest on record.  Nationally, farmers reported that 79 percent of the intended soybean acreage had been planted at the time of the survey interview, which is the lowest since 1996.                                                                               

All wheat planted area is estimated at 63.5 million acres, up 5 percent from 2007.  The 2008 winter wheat planted area, at 46.6 million acres, is 4 percent above last year but down slightly from the previous estimate.  Of this total, about 31.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 11.0 million acres

are Soft Red Winter, and 3.7 million acres are White Winter.  Area planted to other spring wheat for 2008 is estimated at 14.2 million acres, up 7 percent from 2007.  Of this total, about 13.4 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat.  The Durum planted area for 2008 is 2.66 million acres, up 24 percent from the previous year.                                                                                

All Cotton plantings for 2008 are estimated at 9.25 million acres, 15 percent below last year and the lowest since 1983.  Upland planted area is estimated at 9.04 million acres, down 14 percent from 2007.  Decreased planted acres are estimated for all States except Oklahoma and Virginia.  The largest percentage declines are in California and Mississippi where upland producers planted 44 percent fewer acres than last year at 110,000 acres and 370,000 acres, respectively.  American-Pima cotton growers planted 202,000 acres, down 31 percent from 2007.


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Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). I am the President of Futures Flight, an Introducing Broker (IB) for MF Global,   and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

I day traded from 2000-2002 for Schoenfeld Securities (a major proprietary trade firm), and then continued to trade at Sheppard Int. for Jump Trading, LLC. I concentrated on the emini S&P and NASDAQ, trading them “upstairs” on a screen. One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 34 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will. For you, I will be a personal trainer, coach, mentor, overseer, market strategist, consultant, and advisor. 
I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

If you have a question, or comment, email me howardtyllas@howardtyllas.com  

Visit my website www.farmerhedge.com

                         http://www.howardtyllas.com                           

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