Overnight Developments
- The European DJ Stoxx 50 this morning is up +0.95% and Sep S&Ps are up +2.50 points (+0.27%). The Asia-Pacific stock markets today closed mostly lower with Japan (-0.95%), Hong Kong (-0.39%), China (+1.65%), Taiwan (-1.12%), Australia (-0.43%), Singapore (-0.03%), South Korea (-0.26%), India (+0.14%).
- European stocks rose today after Jun Euro-Zone economic confidence rose more-than-expected to its highest level in seven months. US stocks are slightly higher and the dollar and Treasuries are stronger after China ruled out any "sudden changes" to its foreign-exchange policy. Deutsche Telekom, Europe's biggest telephone company, rose 2.2% after Vodaphone. the world's largest mobile-phone company, said it is considering a bid for Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile division. Holcim Ltd. climbed 2.2% after UBS AG added the world's second-largest cement maker to its "most preferred" list, citing the company's "exposure to emerging markets and strong financials," while Elan gained 5.9% after the Sunday Times reported that Novartis AG, Europe's second-largest drugmaker, is in talks to buy part of the Irish drugmaker.
- Japanese stocks were pressured today on concern equity sales by Daiwa Securities and Mizuho Financial Croup will dilute shareholder value. Daiwa Securities Group, Japan's second-largest brokerage, plunged 10% after saying it plans to raise about 240 billion yen ($2.5 billion) in a share sale and Mizuho Financial Group, Japan's third-largest bank by market value, lost 3.8% after people familiar with the matter said the bank may start selling 600 billion yen ($6.3 billion) of shares as early as next week. Limiting stock losses in Japan was the +5.9% m/m jump in May Japan industrial production, matching a gain in April that was the fastest rate of expansion since 1953, as the impact of China's 4 trillion yuan ($586 nillion) stimulus spending is feeding demand for Japan's heavy construction equipment, autos and materials.
IN ONE HOUR OF TRADING YOU CAN MAKE MORE MONEY THAN MOST PEOPLE DO SLAVING AT A DEAD END JOB ALL WEEK LONG...
I didn’t believe it either until I saw the proof with my own eyes... Click here for the full report
Genius chess player with a certified I.Q. of 157 unveils his 'sneaky' (and 100% legal) trading system which can...
- ... secure net profits up to $1250
- ... not in days or weeks
- ... but just 59 minutes or less
Overnight U.S. Stock News
- September S&Ps this morning are up +2.50 points. The US stock market last Friday finished mixed (Dow -0.40%, S&P 500 -0.15%, Nasdaq Composite +0.47%).
- Bearish factors for stock prices last Friday included (1) the surge in the US savings rate in May to a 15-1/2 year high of 6.9%, stoking concerns that an economic recovery may be muted as consumer spending remains weak, (2) a slump in energy producers after crude oil declined, (3) weakness in health-care companies on worries a health-care overhaul by the Obama administration will leave it harder for many health-care firms to be profitable, and (4) a revised report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that says that the projected US government debt may exceed the size of the economy by 2023, seven years earlier than a CBO prediction made 18 months ago, citing rising health-care costs and an aging population that will boost government spending.
- Bullish factors for stock prices last Friday included (1) the unexpected jump in the June University of Michigan US consumer confidence to a 16-month high, (2) the drop in the 3-month dollar Libor rate to a record low 0.598%, indicating continued improvement in the interbank lending markets, and (3) the biannual Financial Market Liquidity Index compiled by the Bank of England which shows global markets are the most liquid since November, signaling efforts by governments and central banks to keep credit flowing are working.
- J.C. Penney advanced 1.2% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to "overweight" from "equal-weight," saying the retailer is the "most likely candidate in the department store group to outperform current consensus gross margin expectations in the second half of 2009 and beyond.
The "U.S. Economic Preview" report, which is sent each evening and provides analysis for the next day's key events and economic reports is now exclusively available through CRB Trader.
The U.S. Economic Preview provides a trader with perspective on events before they occur the next day, thus helping a trader to know better how to react when a report is released.
Click here for more information on CRB Trader
Today's U.S. Market Focus
- September 10-year T-notes this morning are up +2.5 ticks. Sep T-note prices last Friday closed up +6.5 ticks at a 1-month high. Bullish factors for T-note prices last Friday included (1) a lack of inflation pressures after the US May PCE deflator rose +0.1% y/y, the smallest gain since records began in 1959, and (2) concerns that consumer spending will remain subdued which may crimp an economic recovery after the US savings rate in May surged to +6.9%, its highest level since Dec 1993. Bearish factors for T-note prices last Friday included (1) comments from former Fed Chairman Greenspan that if political pressures prevent central banks from curbing their "inflated balance sheets," inflation may emerge by 2012 or earlier, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in the June University of Michigan US consumer confidence index to a 16-month high (+1.8 to 70.8 versus expectations of unchanged at 69.0).
- The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen +0.27 yen and the euro/dollar -0.11 cents. The dollar index last Friday finished lower. Bearish factors for the dollar last Friday included (1) the People's Bank of China's call for a "super-sovereign" currency and for the IMF to manage part of members' foreign currency reserves, (2) the prediction from JPMorgan Chase that the dollar may weaken if US corporate earnings beat analysts' forecasts, sending stocks higher in valuation and encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding assets overseas, and (3) the drop in the 3-month dollar Libor rate to a record low of 0.598%, signaling poor interest rate differentials for the dollar. Bullish factors for the dollar last Friday included (1) comments from ECB Council member Ivan Sramko that the uncertainty over the development of the global economy is "great," which may lead to an increase in the safe-haven demand for the dollar, and (2) comments from the global hea d of foreign exchange strategy at Barclays Capital that despite Chinese calls for a new global currency, the dollar has "few rivals" as a reserve currency.
- August crude oil prices this morning are up +47 cents a barrel and August gasoline is +2.10 cents a gallon. Aug crude oil prices last Friday moved lower and closed down by -$1.07 per barrel. Aug gasoline closed down -2.97 cents a gallon. Bearish factors for crude oil prices last Friday included (1) the May personal income report that showed the US savings rate jumped to a 15-1/2 year high in May, indicating the economic recovery will be slow to gather strength and may keep US energy demand weak, and (2) the restart of the Exxon Baytown refinery in Texas, the largest refiner in the US, which had been shut down for operational issues but is up again and producing gasoline and distillates. Bullish factors for crude prices last Friday included (1) the slumping dollar, and (2) continued attacks by Nigerian militants on Nigeria's oil infrastructure after an oil facility run by Royal Dutch Shell was damaged despite the Nigerian government's offer of amnesty to militants wh o give up their weapons and agree to rehabilitation to avoid prosecution.
Sponsor Message:
Successfully Trade Futures, Commodities, Forex & Stocks!
Trend Forecasting with Intermarket Analysis gives you the weapon to conquer
the limitations of traditional technical trading - intermarket analysis.
As a special offer you will also receive complimentary recent forecasts
for the trading markets of your choice.
Go here now to receive this informative EBook and forecasts -- at no charge!
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases for companies with market caps above $50 mln listed by mkt cap) APOL-Apollo Group (BEST earnings consensus $1.12 per share), HRB-H&R Block ($2.05), TNK-Teekay Tank ($0.39), CHBT-China-Biotics Industries ($0.24), DSWL-Deswell Industries (n/a)
| Monday 6/29/2009 | |
|---|---|
| United States | |
| 0930 ET | Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at the Risk Capital 2009 Conference in Brussels. |
| 1300 ET | Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo T-bill auctions. |
| Japan | |
| 0000 ET | May Japan vehicle production, Apr –47.1% y/y. |
| 1915 ET | Jun Japan Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI, May +5.2 to 46.6. |
| 1930 ET | May Japan jobless rate expected +0.2 to 5.2%, Apr +0.2 to 5.0%. May job-to-applicant ratio expected –0.01 to 0.45, Apr –0.06 to 0.46. |
| 1930 ET | May Japan household spending expected –1.5% y/y, Apr –1.3% y/y. |
| 2130 ET | May Japan labor cash earnings expected –3.0% y/y, Apr –2.7% y/y. |
| France | |
| 0400 ET | Jun French Bloomberg retail PMI, May –0.9 to 48.3. |
| Germany | |
| 0400 ET | Jun German Bloomberg retail PMI, May –2.6 to 46.3. |
| Euro-Zone | |
| 0400 ET | Jun Euro-Zone Bloomberg retail PMI, May –1.3 to 47.1. |
| 0500 ET | Jun Euro-Zone business climate indicator expected +0.12 to -3.05, May +0.09 to -3.17. Jun consumer confidence expected +1 to -30, May unchanged at -31. Jun economic confidence expected +1.5 to 70.8, May +2.1 to 69.3. |
| United Kingdom | |
| 0430 ET | May UK net consumer credit expected +0.3 billion pounds, Apr +0.3 billion pounds. |
| 0430 ET | May UK mortgage approvals expected +46,000, Apr +43,200. |
| 0430 ET | Revised May UK M4 money supply, previous +0.2% /m and +16.6% y/y. |
| 1901 ET | Jun UK GfK consumer confidence survey expected +2 to –25, Mau unchanged at –27. |
Morning Quote Board
Morning Quotes (ET) Last Chg %chg Updated US Stock Futures S&P (Globex) (U9) 916.40 2.50 0.27% 07:14:08 DJIA (CBOT) (U9) 8394 21 0.25% 07:11:57 European Stocks Europe DJ Stoxx 50 2107.80 19.83 0.95% 07:09:15 London UK FTSE Index 4264.71 23.70 0.56% 07:09:15 German Dax Index 4830.77 54.30 1.14% 07:09:24 French CAC 40 Index 3169.71 39.98 1.28% 07:09:15 Asian-Pacific Stocks Japan Nikkei Index 9783 -94 -0.95% 03:00:17 Hong Kong Hang Seng 18529 -72 -0.39% 04:01:30 China CSI 300 Index 3180 52 1.65% 03:01:16 Taiwan TAIEX Index 6391 -72 -1.12% 01:46:00 Australian S&P 200 3886.9 -16.9 -0.43% 02:47:03 Singapore Str. Times 2317.17 -0.78 -0.03% 05:10:02 South Korea KOSPI 200 178.81 -0.47 -0.26% 05:04:03 Bombay Sensex 30 14786 21.1 0.14% 06:28:08 Karachi KSE-100 7206 43 0.60% 05:44:35 US Interest Rates 10yr T-notes (CBT)(U9) 116.155 0.025 0.07% 07:13:42 Cash 10yr T-note Price 96.285 0.095 0.31% 07:24:01 Cash 10yr T-note Yield 3.500 -0.036 -1.03% 07:23 5yr T-note (CBT)(U9) 114.280 0.015 0.03% 07:13:45 Cash 5yr T-note Price 100.155 0.055 0.17% 07:19:32 Cash 5yr T-note Yield 2.521 -0.037 -1.44% 07:19 30-yr T-bond (CBT)(U9) 118.22 0.05 0.12% 07:14:01 Cash 30yr T-bond Price 99.040 0.180 0.57% 07:24:01 Cash 30yr T-bond Yield 4.302 -0.034 -0.78% 07:23 Eurodollars (CME)(U9) 99.340 0.015 0.02% 07:13:56 Eurodollars (CME)(Z9) 99.100 -0.005 -0.01% 07:14:04 Asian & European Rates 10-yr JGBs (TSE) (U9) 137.88 0.22 0.16% 02:00:00 EuroyenTibor(SGX)(U9) 99.505 -0.005 -0.01% 04:32:04 Bunds (Eurex) (U9) 121.13 0.17 0.14% 07:09:18 Euribor (Eurex) (U9) 98.97 0.00 -0.01% 05:42:18 UK Gilts (Liffe) (U9) 118.53 0.39 0.33% 07:08:41 Short Stlg (Liffe) (U9) 98.89 0.00 0.00% 07:03:58 Forex US Dollar-Japanese Yen 95.45 0.27 0.28% 07:24:25 EuroFX-US Dollar 1.4045 -0.0011 -0.11% 07:24:25 US Dollar-Swiss Franc 1.0868 0.0034 0.34% 07:24:25 British Pound-US$ 1.6539 0.0014 0.14% 07:24:25 US$-Canadian Dlr 1.1534 0.0010 0.10% 07:24:25 Yen (Globex) (U9) 1.0484 -0.0031 -0.31% 07:14:15 Euro FX (Globex) (U9) 1.4045 -0.003 -0.21% 07:14:18 SwissFranc (Globex)(U9) 0.9212 -0.0044 -0.48% 07:14:09 British Pound(Glbx)(U9) 1.6534 0.0007 0.04% 07:14:18 Canadian$ (Globex)(U9) 0.8672 -0.0009 -0.10% 07:14:20 Commodities Gold (Comex) (Q9) 942.6 1.6 0.17% 06:54:06 Silver (Comex) (N9) 14.075 -0.053 -0.38% 06:54:25 Copper (Comex) (N9) 230.1 0.8 0.33% 06:53:37 Crude Oil (Nymex) (Q9) 69.63 0.47 0.68% 06:54:13 Gasoline (Nymex) (Q9) 189.29 2.10 1.12% 06:53:53 Heating Oil(Nymex)(Q9) 179.15 1.05 0.59% 06:54:13 NaturalGas(Nymex)(Q9) 4.067 -0.038 -0.93% 06:49:31 Corn (CBOT) (Z9) 402.00 -2.25 -0.56% 07:13:42 Soybeans (CBOT) (X9) 991.75 0.75 0.08% 07:09:23 Wheat (CBOT) (Z9) 591.00 3.75 0.64% 07:12:10
Copyright © 2009, All rights reserved. The information contained herein is derived from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed for the use of this material and no express or implied warranties nor guarantees are made. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation to buy or sell, any securities or derivative instruments.
