MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 26, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
ABOUT TRADING: Trading is not easy. Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. That is why a trading plan is so important. It forces discipline and a removal from emotion. In my Market Update I show you the trading components all trading plans need: Entry, Exit, Projection. If those are not determined prior to a trade, you are asking for trouble. I also share with you the pecularities of the markets that you don't find in a textbook but only through years of trading experience.
The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday. Additional Trade Alerts are published on alternate days. To sign up for both register on my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/ and submit. You may also want to request some of my free trading booklets.
ESTABLISHING A TRADING ACCOUNT: I offer brokerage services and personal assistance for every level of trader. You will work with me directly. Feel free to call or email me at any time without obligation. I welcome hearing from you!
TRADE ALERTS:
Sell July mini silver. Sell 13.765 stop. Protective stop 14.115. Potential projection 13.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, silver rallied up to the 16.000 resistance this month and has been selling of since.
2. The monthly chart is forming a key reversal top this month.
3. On the monthly chart, silver attempted to rally over its major downtrend line this month and failed.
4. The weekly has a key reversal top.
5. The daily chart has a key reversal top formed in early June and has been in a downtrend since.
6. On the daily chart, silver sold off under the 20 day moving average in mid June which is negative.
7. The daily chart has two previous sell signals that are still intact.
8. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy September dollar index. Buy 81.330 stop. Protective stop 80.290. Potential projection 83.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart is forming a preliminary key reversal bottom this month suggesting a trend change from down to up.
2. On the monthly and weekly chart, the dollar is back over the 80.000 major support level.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom four weeks ago.
4. On the weekly chart, the current wave down has exceeded projections suggesting an oversold market.
5. On the daily chart, the recent sell-off held at the 80.000 support.
6. On the daily chart, the dollar formed a key reversal bottom yesterday.
7. On the daily chart, the dollar rallied back over the 20 day moving average yesterday and held it today.
Sell September mini eurocurrency. Sell 138.74 stop. Protective stop 140.17. Potential projection 136.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart is forming a preliminary key reversal top suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. On the weekly chart, the fx formed a key reversal top three weeks ago.
3. On the daily chart, the contract high is a key reversal top and the fx formed another key reversal top yesterday.
4. On the daily chart, the recent rally appears to be the set up for a third wave down. The market has had two waves down to date.
5. On the daily chart, the fx is back under the 20 day moving average after attempting to rally above it recently. Another attempt today failed.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
SEPT COPPER: Last time I pointed out that copper could be setting up for a rally. That is has done and today it rallied back over the 20 day moving average. That is positive. If it is starting a new wave up, it has the potential to take out the contract high at 246.30. Closed 231.60, up 3.50.
AUG MINI GOLD: Stops were reached yesterday. It tried to push through the 940.00 resistance and did succeed enough to reach stops. Today it tried again to get over it and could not. It has rallied over the downtrend it had formed since the early June high so there could be more to the rally. Just watching for now. Closed 939.50, up 5.10.
Position: Short 923.00 (6.22). Exit 943.00 (6.24). Loss $664.
JUL MINI SILVER: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 14.005, up 95.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
AUG MINI CRUDE OIL: It has been rallying since my last report and is testing the breakout to the downside mentioned in my General Comment last time. It is also trying to get back over the 20 day moving average. It closed right on it today. Just watching. Closed 70.23, up 1.56.
SEPT MINI JAPANESE YEN: There was a Fed report yesterday afternoon and the currencies were acting erratic early on. I move the stop up to 104.29 and it was reached and filled at 104.22 when the report came out. It sold off to the 20 day moving average today and held. It also closed over the 104.00 support. Waiting to buy. Closed 104.38, down 20.
Position: Long 104.780 (6.23). Exit 104.22 (6.24). Loss $350.
SEPT SWISS FRANC: The Fed report caused the currencies to act a bit goofy yesterday but the swiss got a head start. Its range yesterday was 94.16 down to 90.75 - and most of that was very early In the morning long before the Fed report. It sold off under the 20 day moving average and that is negative. The monthly is forming a key reversal top. The weekly already has one. Waiting to sell. Closed 91.46, up 40.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: I tried to buy it today but the price was not reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 80.69, down 19.
SEPT BRITISH POUND: Stops were reached during the night session. It has sold off since and made a low today at 162.28. It did manage to close over the 20 day moving average today but continues to appear to be forming a major top. Watching closely. Closed 163.70, down 40.
Position: Short 162.98 (6.23). Exit 165.22 6.24). Loss $1406.25.
SEPT MINI EUROCURRENCY: I tried to sell it today. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 139.85, up 66.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: Last time I took profit on a short position at 86.80. Today it sold off to 85.96. That is also near term support. A rally up to 88.00 could set up a selling opportunity again. Closed 86.42, down 42.
SEPT 10 YR. NOTES: They formed a huge outside day today after testing the 20 day moving average. Once they sold off to that, they snapped back aggressively. In my last Update I pointed out that if they took out 115.250, we should be looking at a second wave up. That is exactly what has happened. Projections are the high 116.000 level and today's high was 116.110. Closed 116.065, up 1.005.
SEPT BONDS: In my last Update I had potential projections for the current rally to 118.240. Today's high 118.095. Longer term bonds appear to be making a bottom. If they can eventually get over 118.240, they should try for 121.280 longer term. My point being, bonds could be setting up for a good move. Just watching. Closed 118.005, up 1.145.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
