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World Bank Forecast 'Shakes' Confidence, Supports Dollar.


Dollar Index (DXU9):

The Dollar opened higher at 81.16 after the World Bank revised its forecast for the global economic recovery 'lower', sending equity markets tumbling and traders running for 'safe-haven' Treasuries and Dollars. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 81.30, before drifting lower to a day-session close of 81.14, up 51 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/neutral momentum indicators. Traders will key on equity markets 'overseas' for further indication of 'risk-aversion', ahead of Tuesday's Existing Home Sales report. A higher open should find Resistance at 81.42 and 81.70, while an open below 81.02 may find Support at 80.74 and 80.34.  

British Pound (BPU9):

Sterling opened lower at our Pivot level 1.6455 and continued lower against a higher DX as equity markets saw traders taking profit/risk off the table. Weaker Home Prices added to the weakness, sending prices to a daily low of 1.6317, before ending the day-session at 1.6342, dow 171 tics. The close below the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative', w/neutral momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at 1.6268 and 1.6195, while an open above 1.6391 should find Resistance at 1.6464 and 1.6587.

Canadian Dollar (CDU9):

The CD opened lower at .8734 and followed most other major foreign currencies lower as the DX was bid higher by those seeking a 'safe-haven' from the equity market sell-off. The stronger DX sent commodity prices and the CD to a daily Lo of .8657, before bouncing towards the close to end the session at .8684, down 135 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at .8618 and .8552, while an open above .8723 should find Resistance at .8789 and .8894.

 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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