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Euro Follows Equities Higher After Confidence Improves.


Euro Currency (ECM9):

The Euro opened lower at 1.3867 against the Dollar, before following equity markets higher as traders rotated out of the safe-haven securities and increasing their risk appetite for higher returns. A better than expected EZ economic confidence report rose +2.1 to a six month Hi of 69.3, pushing the EC to a mid-day Hi of 1.3981, before drifting lower into the close of 1.3960, up 44 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/firm momentum indicators. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/topping momentum indicators. Traders will key look for help from higher equity markets. End of month repositioning could see an increase in volatility ahead of the weekend. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4030 and 1.4101, while an open below 1.3911 may find Support at 1.3840 and 1.3721.

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened higher at 80.93 as concerns that tighter credit would weigh on the recovery effort. Better than expected economic data on Advanced Durable Goods sent equity markets higher and the DX to a morning Lo of 80.315, before bouncing above our Pivot level of 80.47 and ending the day-session at 80.50, up 8.5 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. An increase in risk-appetite by equity traders overnight could weigh on the Dollar. A lower open may find Support at 80.14 and 79.79, while an open above 80.67 should find Resistance at 81.02 and 81.55. 

Japanese Yen (JYM9):

The Yen opened lower at 1.0313 as traders and investors sought higher returns by selling JY and investing in higher yielding securities. Prices slid to a morning Lo of 1.0285, before bouncing to 1.0359 and drifting lower to a close of 1.0322, down 184 tics. The close below the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. A continuation of higher equity prices in Asian markets could weigh on the Yen. A lower open may find Support at 1.0238 and 1.0154, while an open above 1.0369 should find Resistance at 1.0453 and 1.0584.


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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