Sterling 'Surges' on Technicals and Weaker DX.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
by Bob Kozak of C3I Capital Management, LLC
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British Pound (BPM9): Sterling opened higher at 1.5514 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.5471 against a weak DX, before following equity and commodity prices higher as an increase in risk-appetite sent the DX lower. A break above the 200-day MA of 1.5539 sent prices to a daily Hi of 1.5792, before trailing lower into the close of 1.5776, up 265 tics. Better technical data and buy recommendations on Sterling were contributing factors. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/expensive momentum indicators. Ahead of a shortened Holiday trading week, longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5896 and 1.6017, while an open below 1.5672 may find Support at 1.5551 and 1.5327. Dollar Index (DXM9): The DX opened lower at 81.79 as continued pressure from a rebound in equity markets relaxed the safe-haven need for Dollars. As equity prices rose, the DX continued lower and most other major foreign currency markets higher. Prices fell to a daily Lo of 80.90 and bounced to a day-session close of 81.07, down 98 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. The recovery in equity markets and commodities could weigh further on the DX, until risk-appetite decreases and the need for the safe-haven of the Dollar returns. Traders will key on foreign equity markets as a barometer for risk-appetite ahead of the day-session open. A lower open may find Support at 80.59 and 80.10, while an open above 81.46 should find Resistance at 81.95 and 82.82.
Recent articles from this author
- Dollar 'Pauses' Ahead of FOMC Results. - Tuesday, August 11, 2009
- Cable Breaks Out on PMI Report, DX Drop. - Monday, August 03, 2009
- Sterling 'Shines' As Housing & Stocks Prices Increase. - Thursday, July 30, 2009
- Chinese Equity Correction Sparks Flight to Quality in DX. - Wednesday, July 29, 2009
- Canadian Sets New High for 2009. - Monday, July 27, 2009
About the author
Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst C3I Capital Management, LLC Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago. Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of PROBABLE DAILY & WEEKLY TRADING RANGES by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.
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