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Euro 'Higher' As ECB Accommodates Pundits.


Euro Currency (ECM9):

The EC opened higher at 1.3363 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.3256, before rising to a morning Hi of 1.3469 on better than expected increase in German Factory Orders and DX weakness. The ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp to 1.00% and will use only 60B euros applied to some form of quantitative easing, according to ECB President Trichet's comments. As equity markets retraced, the DX added strength, sending the EC lower into the start of afternoon trading. Prices rose into the close and ended the session at 1.3370, up 23 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will key on Friday's Payroll Report and Stress Test results, which could lead to risk-avoidance in global equity markets and weigh on the EC. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.3476 and 1.3582, while an open below 1.3363 may find Support at 1.3257 and 1.3144. 

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened lower at 83.92 and rose to a morning Hi of 84.54, before sliding to a morning Lo of 83.555 against a stronger EC. As equity prices retraced, risk-avoidence attracted traders to the DX, sending prices higher into the afternoon session. Traders bid the DX higher as equity markets weakened, ending the day-session at 84.04, up 10 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Weak equity markets 'over-seas' ahead of Friday's Payroll Report may see more 'safe-haven' buying ahead of the 8:30am et report. A lower open may find Support at 83.55 and 83.06, while an open above 84.045 should find Resistance at 84.53 and 85.03.

Canadian Dollar (CDM9):

The CD opened higher at .8594 and drifted to a morning Lo of .8517, following oil/metals prices lower. Prices bounced to our Pivot of .8538 as we enter the afternoon session and slid to a daily Lo of .8501, before bouncing to a close of .8519, down 54 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positve'w/expensive momentum indicators. Lower commodity prices and a stronger DX may weigh on prices. The strength of Canadian Banks may benefit the CD should U.S. banks receive a negative reaction to the 'stress-test'. A lower open may find Support at .8480 and .8441, while an open above .8540 should find Resistance at .8579 and .8639. 

British Pound (BPM9):

The BP opened lower at 1.5101 and retraced to a morning Lo of 1.4995 after the BoE increased the size of its quantitative easing by $75B and comments from Lloyd's Banking Gp.Plc, stating that they see a 50% increase in bad loans. Prices drifted into the afternoon session looking for direction from the DX. Prices slid to a daily Lo of 1.4940, before bouncing into the close of 1.4993, down 138 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/ topping momentum indicators. Traders should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure ahead of the Payroll Report. A lower open may find Support at 1.4890 and 1.4786, while an open above 1.5043 should find Resistance at 1.5147 and 1.5300. 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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