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Weak Economic Data 'Hurts' Cable.


British Pound (BPM9):

The BP opened lower at 1.4555 after the Confederation of British Industry increased the contraction in the U.K. economy in 2009 to 3.9% from 3.3%. Prices slid to a morning Lo of 1.4496 as pressure from a stronger DX weighed on prices. As the DX relaxed, the BP rose towards the close to end the session at 1.4543, down 248 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/neutral momentum indicators. Pressure on the ECB to lower rates on May 7th could lend support to Sterling. Traders will key on the DX for direction. A lower open may find Support at 1.4421 and 1.4298, while an open above 1.4618 should find Resistance at 1.4741 and 1.4938.  

Dollar Index (DXM9):

The DX opened higher at 86.75 as profit-taking in the equity markets saw traders seeking the safe-haven of Treasuries as risk-avoidance helped push the DX to a morning Hi of 87.22, before sliding to our secondary Resistance level of 86.925 as we approach mid-day. Prices found Support at this level through to the day-session close of 86.99, up 70 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. A weaker EC and equity market could see further Support for Treasuries and the DX. A higher open should find Resistance at 87.42 and 87.86, while an open below 86.78 may find Support at 86.34 and 85.70.

Canadian Dollar (CDM9):

The CD opened lower at .8109 against the stronger DX and weaker commodity prices. Prices drifted to a morning Lo of .8077, before bouncing into the afternoon session. Continued weakness in oil and other commodities kept the CD in a thin range through to the close of .8082, down 154 tics. The BoC will look to leave rates 'unchanged' at Tuesday's rate policy meeting and use 'quantitative easing' to purchase s/t existing debt, which will be detailed in their report on Thursday. The close below the 10-day MA changes the s/t trend 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders will be cautious ahead of the 9:00am et announcement. A lower open may find support at .8023 and .7963, while an open above .8136 should find Resistance at .8196 and .8309.

 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal  at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of 

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by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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