Euro 'Holds' Support Level As Bank Policy In Question.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
by Bob Kozak of C3I Capital Management, LLC
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Euro Currency (ECM9): The EC opened higher at 1.3188 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.3227 as equity markets moved higher, weighing on the DX. As the equity markets retraced, the EC slid to our initial Support level of 1.3120, before bouncing into the close of 1.3165, down 18 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders are concerned about the lack of agreement from Central Banks within the EZ as we approach the next ECB rate meeting on May 7th. Many believe rates need to be cut below the 1.0% level, while others including ECB member Alex Weber want to keep rates no lower than 1.0%, which could slow further stimulus needed for recovery. Higher equity prices should favor a stronger open as safe-haven of the DX is reduced. A lower open may find Support at 1.3102 and 1.3038, while an open above 1.3183 should find Resistance at 1.3247 and 1.3328. Dollar Index (DXM9): The DX opened lower at 85.33 and slid to a morning Lo of 85.13 as equity markets rose on a better than expected decline in initial Jobless Claims of -53K. As equity markets retraced , the DX rose to a mid-day Hi of 87.76, before trailing lower into the day-session close of 85.52, up 16 tics. The late afternoon equity rally could pressure the safe-haven benefit of the DX, should foreign markets continue higher over-night. A higher open should find Resistance at 85.72 and 86.07, while an open below 85.28 may find Support at 84.93 and 84.50.
Recent articles from this author
- Dollar 'Pauses' Ahead of FOMC Results. - Tuesday, August 11, 2009
- Cable Breaks Out on PMI Report, DX Drop. - Monday, August 03, 2009
- Sterling 'Shines' As Housing & Stocks Prices Increase. - Thursday, July 30, 2009
- Chinese Equity Correction Sparks Flight to Quality in DX. - Wednesday, July 29, 2009
- Canadian Sets New High for 2009. - Monday, July 27, 2009
About the author
Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
C3I Capital Management, LLC Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago. Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of PROBABLE DAILY & WEEKLY TRADING RANGES by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.
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